Tuesday, February 16, 2016

Storm wrap up and looking forward..

The GREAT storm has come and gone and WOW, we are right on the edge of damaging ice storm and we JUST escaped with relatively minor damage.

What I forecasted

What Happened

Ice pushed the limits to what could have been a damaging storm but the temps just warmed up. about 5 am, the ice stopped building up when temps hit 32 or so. 

Tonight could see a rain or snow shower, but I don't expect any big deal to come from it. 

Warm this weekend:

Saturday Estimate high:

Sunday EVEN BETTER! 

Looking ahead: After our great weekend, a series of cold fronts comes through and then a storm is forecast to form along the cold front. The European model today was JUST cold enough to start as snow and dumped 10-15 inches of snow region wide. Other model runs are just off shore or a little warm. 

Now, we know I operate from a position snow is a good thing. So, if you don't want snow, hope for the opposite of this. 

1. We need to cold air to get in place. Some data suggest VERY marginal air temps with under full sunshine, the freezing line would be near Canada. However, VERY cold air is just behind this storm. 

2. We could hope for a slower storm-- If the main energy comes out lets say Wednesday or Thursday our odds are much better than if we get a slower storm. 

3. Sometimes model data runs a little warm a few days out-- so it could be a little colder than modeled. 

As of now, I'm not too crazy about this storm. This past storm I felt good thinking we'd get something, if even 1-2 inches. With this storm, my fear is by Sunday there is a primary low going into Kentucky (placing us on the warm side) and a second low forms near Wallops Island, meaning a big PA and NY snow. 

Even if this one doesn't pan out, I believe we have 2-3 more shots at something after this. We need a few more inches each location to at least verify my winter snowfall outlooks. 

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