Vanilla swings by after Christmas--

I've been waiting to fire up the bat signal for this event for a couple days (plus having Christmas fun with the kids). It's been clear there will be an event Boxing Day for 2-3 days now, but the fine details are waiting to be hammered out. 

QUICK DETAILS:

Showers Christmas eve-- Mostly dry Christmas day. Snow and sleet (freezing rain southside) develop overnight Christmas and begin that transition into freezing rain and maybe even some rain during Boxing day.

If your want "long term guess" on accumulations. LYH area- 1-2 inches of snow and sleet and a pretty good glaze of ice. ROA and BCB 2-5 inches of snow and sleet, some glaze. Southside- Less sleet, more glaze and rain. Best chance for 6 inches of snow or more will be Staunton up to Harrisonburg.

LONGER TERM:
We will be getting into a colder pattern with several chances for snow and ice starting Dec 26th. Other dates include around the 29th and Jan 2-4th.

SYNOPTICAL PATTERN:

Low pressure forms and attempts to move up to our west- Let's say from East Texas to East Tennessee. There is a block up to the north that force it to "jump" to the coast at some point. At the same time, colder air is being forced east of the mountains by a "banana" high and cold air damming will provide us with a winter event. Good shoot this will be a "warning" criteria event. (Advisory means lower impact)

Notes on map- the blue line is "freezing" line at 5k feet. note how it's being forced down east of the Blue Ridge. This is in response to that "cold" on the map. If you can read the "pressure" lines note how they are bundled up around the storm and broad near the high pressure bringing the cold. Further, note how they "bend" east of the mountains. This will supply cold air that starts most areas as snow and then transitions to sleet and then finally freezing rain. Southside into Farmville has a good shot at having some plain rain too.

Further updates later today.