Two models, the GFS and ECMWF have had subtle shifts in the past 2 days-- one shifted east, one shifted west, both had a weaker storm. It seems like SLOWLY they are coming to an agreement.
It not locked in-- but late Friday evening rain should develop and once it becomes heavy it will mix with or change to snow. High elevations are at the best chances to see SOME accumulations but I'd not be shocked it even close to Lynchburg sees a coating. These storms are tough as it involves upper air energy diving our way and spawning a storm that forms JUST far enough south to throw back moisture into our region. While it's cold enough aloft- 3k feet down as modeled is just above freezing.
This could be a pretty damaging storm to trees up towards Wintergreen, Afton Mt and other places NE along the Blue Ridge Parkway.
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