80 degrees in February??

The much anticipated warm up is well in radar range. 50's tomorrow and MAYBE 60 Sunday-- will make for a welcome change from our 30's and 40's we've had since December. Looking through some data- if everything is right with the sun, the wind direction--- ect, we COULD hit 80 once next week! Best chances would be Danville and Martinsville but I certainly could see this happening in Lynchburg as well. 70's is a lock. 

The bar has been set at 80-- are you taking the over or the under??

Either winter is napping or winter is TKO for the year

Hope you enjoyed the dusting last night. I honestly thought we may squeeze an inch our when I was working up in Waynesboro and snow was falling at 5 PM-- Virga, snow falling in the clouds and evaporating before it reaches the ground killed our snow. Some places to our NW and SE had a coating to an inch. I had the equivalent of "pollen" coating on my car.

The warmth is coming-- 50's to maybe 60's starting Sunday-- no real signs of lasting cold through Feb 25th. Certainly, my heating bill is glad to hear this.

I'm planing some type of a write up on the 2000's snow decade in Lynchburg compared to Philly. Expect that in the next few days.

If we are "lucky" a dusting to an inch is possible

I've not updated simply because there wasn't much to talk about. The northern stream dominated and crushed our southern vort. It blows up to a big storm-- but WELL off shore(800 miles or so) Some energy and moisture will be awfully close so I won't be shocked if we get a few hours of snow flurries/showers that cover the ground SOME places. The odd thing is again-- I can see how the first band of snows actually go to our north and west-- and a second round misses to our south. Just one of those winters.

We get warmer late weekend and early next week--50's on Sunday and 60's Tuesday.

Does winter come back around??


Very possible, but I can't say 100% at this time. The mean troff will be our west for the next couple weeks. Normally, the best chances for snow are those located in the mean troff. Some indications are that the troff begins to slide east late month-- but is also retreating to the North in response to the south east ridge. If this happens, odds are we are mostly warm. This doesn't preclude a rouge could blast and a quick shot of some snow.

Will send a quick update by tomorrow AM--

Pulling the plug on the large event-- light snow still possible

All data has the northern stream data much too strong for this event and as a result the threat for any significant is basically gone. A coating of snow is still possible--- but not likely.

We do get nice and warm next week!

Shortest blog ever??

The Thursday storm has flatlined-- attempts to revive in process.

All noon data continues to drift away from the event-- and some data now says "what event". The northern energy is much more dominant and kills our southern energy as it heads east. The GFS is the "best" for snow model giving an inch or so while the GGEM/ECMWF basically have nothing.

Is this legit??

Very well could be. When I painted my possible solutions, one concern was keeping that southern vort strong and consolidated. The northern branch just beats it down and shreds it. We've had northern branch issues all year and there is no reason to consider they won't continue. This is very common in a La Nina winter.

If the evening data doesn't start to indicate a revival, I'm ready to pull the plug.

A huge step backwards---

All model data too a huge step backwards if you want a big snow. Step one seems to be a lock-- our clipper blows up. Our second short wave as shown is being destroyed by a piece of northern stream energy.

Vort issues abound.

The above map is from the NCEP site from the GFS model. On this model, the vort is already weaker as it leaves the SW region of our nation. The ECMWF has a much stronger vort in the area circled and labeled. This destroys our upper air support and we get a minimal snow.

All three models showed a coating to 2 inch snow storm.

Is this the final outcome??

No-- not at all. It is very common for model data to be all over the place 5 days out. Especially with regards to the northern piece of energy which is currently in a very poor area to gather data about it. 

When will you have a better view on the northern vort issue?

Educated guess says hopefully by noon tomorrow, by perhaps as late as the midnight runs on Monday night. For a good storm we want that southern vort strong, the northern vort to be minor or non existent *further north* and we'd be in business for a good snowfall. 

Valentines week is going to be nice and warm-- several days up in the 50's and dare I say 60's. 

2 quick notes

1. The blog was adjusted to better mobile viewing. It worked on my phone, but a tried another's phone and got the FULL blog. If you have a second check on your smart phone and drop me a message via comments here or on facebook. 

2. I've purchased the domain name www.VirginiaWX.com with my google adsense money and have made that click right into the blog. My goal is to build that into an actual site and have it running  by next winter. I will keep up on the blog over the summer, but with maybe not quite as much vigor. I'm sure you would all be thrilled to hear reports of another day of 94 degree heat. 

Kick a buck---

The Noon model data has just completed and as the bidding passes my spot, I'm throwing in another buck so the pot is a little richer now.

Quick run down by model

Recall- We need the Monday storm to BLOW UP forcing the cold air deep to our south AND the upper air energy (Vortmax) to not shear out or just not be consolidated.

1. GFS (American Model)-- Blows up the clipper and pushes in cold air. However, it struggles to hold the upper air energy and we get a minor storm. As shown, its a 1-3 inch snowfall Thursday.

2. GGEM (Canadian) Blows up the clipper, holds the upper air energy a little better and its maybe a 2-4 inch snowfall.

3. ECMWF (European) Blows up the clipper as needed and keeps the vortmax VERY strong. as a result, its a BLOCKBUSTER snowstorm. Literally, 12-15 inches region wide-- maybe more because the air is cold and the ratio of snow to liquid could be more like 15-1.

What now??


Waiting game is on. Almost all data shows the clipper blows up. At this point, its just making sure its at an ideal location and drives the cold air well to our south. Second, the data is all over the place with the strength of the vortmax. Despite some data suggesting it could be a bigger storm to our south and east, my greatest fear is always it trending north. Despite the models being very cold, a subtle 100 miles north track in the vortmax leaves us open for a mix to ice or even rain. With this being a fast moving volatile pattern, anything is possible. Even compared to the midnight data, the ECMWF was several degrees warmer with the antecedent cold shot. Comparing to the great MW blizzard from this past week-- St. Louis was at one point was forecasted to get a dumping of ice with a foot of snow on top. The low drifted MUCH further west then modeled an ended up with less then an inch of total precipitation when they were modeled to get over 2 inches.

When will we know??

Like most events, nothing will be set in stone until a day out or less. Both the GFS and ECMWF computer models have biases that are at play here. The GFS tends to crush storms at this range while the ECMWF has consistently OVER done coastal lows at this point in the game. The GFS issue holds water because of that HUGE low that develops. The EC isn't really a over blowing a coastal low, its just an amped up vortmax.

My gut call as of now-- IF we see the big storm idea come to fruition, we will have to battle the dreaded rain/snow/ice line across much of region, including Lynchburg and Roanoke.