Let's give him something to blog about---How about snow??

I had not quite yet put away my shovel and sled, but was accepting the fact that winter's end was coming near. While I do like snow and cold, I also enjoy lower heating bills. I sent in my payment this week--so please click away on those GOOGLE ads to offset my heating costs. :)

My expectations of the this week was the storm tomorrow was MOSTLY rain, a second storm slides to our north and cold air builds in. As the cold exits, a MAJOR low develops and goes WELL to our west. Not a Chicago blizzard like this past Tuesday, but an Ohio snowfall into the upstate of NY.

The models data has shifted---it takes the early week storm a clipper and BLOWS it up to a sub 950 storm. Some data makes the central lowest pressure at 944 MB which is a CAT 4 Hurricane strength. This pushes cold air well to our south and sets the stage for a possible snowfall.

Rare to see a 944 low up there. 

I still expect a break or even end to the cold shortly after Valentines Day--BUT, this is a legit "Threat" as of now next Thursday. 

1. We need the clipper to blow up as modeled. This is rare, but did happen something like this right before the Feb 5-6 snow event here. (6-10 region wide here, 2-3 feet DC to Philly)

2. Once we know the low blows up-- which will be established by Sunday allowing the cold air to lock into place, we need the energy aloft to take a favorable track and be strong enough to make a decent storm. 

If BOTH of these things happen, we could get our best snowfall of the winter. 

Couple of storms to get through-- and then winter takes a break,

There is a freezing rain advisory tonight-- but that is for the higher elevation. I expect MAYBE a little sleet where  most folks live, and really this is just a rain event.

We've got one last cold blast to get through with storm to go with it. While this is an amped up pattern, we lack the high lattitude blocking to keep the cold air locked in place. This will be another major blizzard somewhere and I imagine it will be parts of the Appalachia , maybe into the Ohio Valley, and inland New England. If this storm wraps up as it could, we will get 2-3 bitter cold days.

The good news-- after this, the pattern does seem to drastically shift and the mean trough will be on the west coast and ridging along the east coast. So, many signs point towards a much more mild pattern starting mid month. We will keep a close watch on this storm for next week, but I see very little to support this being a major event for us.

Winter to take break...??

My ice event did not come to fruition, but that was a good thing. That small amount of ice can take a few people off guard--but better to err on the safe side.

If you are tired of the cold and snow-- you may be happy with this paragraph. In an La Nina winter- the mean troff (Storm track) usually shifts westward as the winter progressive. We've slowly watched that unfold-- as we were bitterly cold in December, coder then normal in January and looking at Feb-- even if we get the " Sudden Stratospheric Warming" event I talked about before, if the mean troff is to our west and we have no blocking to our east, our cold shots will be very short lived. Some data is slowly pointing in that direction. If this happens, despite the colder then normal January, my winter forecast won't look too bad. (Troff was well off shore in December, slightly west in January and well west in February)

February of 89 was a La Nina winter and had the mean troff sitting to our west. We did have a couple of threats for snow later in that month and a couple inches did accumulate but the big snows ended up in the Hampton Roads area ( Two big storms a few days apart with 70 degree weather in between them--February 18th and 24th, 2 and three inches fell respectively here in Lynchburg while 10+ across the Hampton Roads area from each event) This matches will with both a La Nina pattern with a west troff-- as cold air moves through the mean troff is briefly off shore and the best storms go to our east. 

 We can use any rain-- so hopefully we get the half inch possible tonight. Another storm approaches Saturday and another decent rain is possible. There isn't much fun blogging about rain but we certainly need it and for those of us who enjoy local produce each summer, we must have it. 

Closing thoughts-- I wish I could dig up the chart, but someone made a list of the major reporting stations in VA for winter snowfall totals and Lynchburg is DEAD LAST with a little over 8 inches. Norfolk is still in the lead with the 14 inch storm on Boxing Day event and a seasonal total of 18 inches.

Major Midwest Blizzard on tap-- with a little ice POSSIBLE here.

NAM Snow output- St. Louis, Chicago, Detroit, Buffalo,Boston-- WOW

A simply huge storm is about to unfold that will bring a large swath of snow from Oklahoma to Maine. This map is somewhat over done with the large 20+ inches, but its get the point across that this is a HUGE storm. Just SE of that heavy snow band will be large amounts of sleet and freezing rain. Some of the freezing rain amounts over parts of MO, IN, IL and OH will be crippling.

For our region, the MAIN thrust of rain will be liquid-- however. The data has suggest overnight Monday into Tuesday some light rain and drizzle falls with temps in the 29 to 31 range. These events can be the worst because there won't be much media talk and that THINEST of glaze can be missed before several accidents across the region.

December 7, 2007 we had an event that dropped .01 of freezing drizzle between 6am and 8 am. It was missed by the models and was a traffic nightmare. Oddly, I went to bed around 1 am thinking-- if this doesn't dry up we are going to have a rough AM. And, at some point around 7:30 or so they flashed on the TV-- police recommend every stay off the road until temps warm up. Our high in the afternoon was 41- but temps were below freezing until 11 AM.

Most model data shows between .03 and .05 that starts after midnight tomorrow night and is gone before 10 am. Temps get into the mid 40's or warmer Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday will be crazy warm-- 60 is very possible and will cool back to the 40's for highs on Thursday. Another storm approaches Saturday, and taking the models at face value, will be warm for region for snow or ice.

Ice Updated-- still minor

Late Monday into Early Tuesday there will be a minor ice threat. As a low pressure develops over East Texas the warm air advection will zoom over the cold dome at the surface and bring us a shot at a little freezing drizzle.
Precipt amounts will be less then .05 of an inch, so the icing will be minor but some traffic concerns early Tuesday. As the low cranks up the bulk of storm is rain here Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Cold air filters in after this event and we are back to seasonal levels. Some most model data suggest that a trailing piece of energy spins a storm up heading into next weekend and we have a threat for some rain or snow. Track at this time is favorable for snow-- temps are the issue.

Mid day ice update--

All model trends have been away from ice. If the moisture doesn't plume to our north before the warm up, we still could see the some minor icing late Monday night and early Tuesday. Liquid amounts are under .05 of an inch on both models I scanned. The small amount of ice could make for rough travel but all data has us well above freezing shortly after mid day.


After this storm, some data suggest a storm goes JUST off shore and misses our area. If it nudges west, we could be looking at a shot at snow. This is in the "not likely, but keep your eyes open" department.

Enjoy the nice warm day- My youngest finally gets to ride his Thomas the Train Big Wheel he received from Santa outside the house this afternoon.

Ice event still looming-- doesn't appear to be significant, but still watching it.

Certainly, I tend to update more when larger events loom. The pending event Tuesday-Wednesday has SOME promise to be a marginal ice event. Some of the early model data had leaned towards a decent snow that changed to sleet and freezing rain, and they've moved to maybe a quick shot of sleet into freezing rain. SOME data shows temps in the upper 20's--which would make for a day of pretty bad travel, but no threat of power outages or down tree limbs.

As of now, I see there being a 6 to maybe 12 hour window where we could get some freezing rain. As the heavier precipitation approaches, we lose our connection to the parent high pressure and the "banana" high (piece that extended) over upstate New York slides out to sea. This is an impressive cold air mass coming down and a slight shift east of that MASSIVE arctic high will greatly influence the storms impact on our region.

Start time as of now is late Monday evening into Tuesday morning. If everything goes well, we are all rain by noon Tuesday.

Will update tomorrow-- As of now, 60% odds this is an advisory level event, 15% warning (.25 of ice or more) and 15% it's a non event.

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