I like to get an early jump on snow and ice storms but I was travelling and had only my ipad. This storm has been on the "radar" a few days and like most clippers, the exact track and amounts change. Often, you need to see the "whites" of it's eyes before you know how it's going to truly unfold.
**as I'm typing this NWS has gone Winter Storm Watch for everyone north of the Staunton River.. (AKA, Altavista to Blackburg North.**
Clipper diggs in, reforms just to our south and we get our first snow of the year. (Accumulation snow, that is)
5 thoughts on this event..
1. My original post, had I done it last night was going to be 1-3 inches, with potential for up to 5.
2. Clippers can be tricky with snow ratio. Normal is at 10-1 (inch of rain makes 10 of snow, but it's actually closer to 11-1) Clippers can be 15 or 20-1. So, if we get the .3 shown on models, 5 inches is likely.
3. The further north and east you are, the better you will do.
4. Snow starts between 7-9 am west and 8-10 east. It's all done by 3-4 pm.
5. Wednesday will be a GREAT winter day with temps in the 20's, great sun and snow cover.
Now, the NWS sets the benchmark, but I'm not convinced 3-5 yet. I'm going to move up to the 2-4 range and watch. The GFS model is low guy with .2 liquid and the ECMWF has closer to .3. A short term model called the NAM is like a drunk uncle and shows closer to .5, but has drifted north a bit.
Expect schools to be out Tuesday and Wednesday.
DC area will see 3-6 and Wilmington DE and Philly maybe that or even 4-8.
Monday, January 20, 2014
Monday, January 13, 2014
Cold and colder, but when will we get snow?
The unique thing about this winter so far is the cold air is NEVER that far away, but also that it's always quick to leave. Tremendous blocking in the north Pacific and west coast regions have lead to frequent cold air outbreaks, but also lack of blocking to our east has allowed the cold air to BOOK out of here quickly and we've had a rather benign 2-3 ice events and flurries a few times.
After this respite, which has been a bit cooler than first modeled, more cold air is coming in. For the next 10 days, when it's cold I'd call the air " cold enough" to snow cold-- but not like the "Cold day" of last week. (Hello polar vortex). The week leading to the Superbowl, we may get blocking over the poles that could push the "Polar Vortex" back for a swing through.
January should finish well below normal . "Hello busted January forecast".
Snow chances?
1. Shot for a coating Wednesday evening as the cold front passes a ton of energy on the back side is trying to fire up a storm. Surface temps are marginal and it could be NOTHING or rain, but coating can't be ruled out.
2. Another couple shots over the weekend and early next week. Nothing huge, coating to 1-2 inches at best. It's pure speculation at this point.
After that, it's more speculation. Pattern does not look ideal for a widespread BIGGIE event. But regional and local places always have shots when it's cold. (Not the North Carolina to Maine BIG event)
Keep expectations for a 1-3, 2-4 and 3-6 type events and we should have that type window from Jan 22- Feb 5 or so.
After this respite, which has been a bit cooler than first modeled, more cold air is coming in. For the next 10 days, when it's cold I'd call the air " cold enough" to snow cold-- but not like the "Cold day" of last week. (Hello polar vortex). The week leading to the Superbowl, we may get blocking over the poles that could push the "Polar Vortex" back for a swing through.
January should finish well below normal . "Hello busted January forecast".
Snow chances?
1. Shot for a coating Wednesday evening as the cold front passes a ton of energy on the back side is trying to fire up a storm. Surface temps are marginal and it could be NOTHING or rain, but coating can't be ruled out.
2. Another couple shots over the weekend and early next week. Nothing huge, coating to 1-2 inches at best. It's pure speculation at this point.
After that, it's more speculation. Pattern does not look ideal for a widespread BIGGIE event. But regional and local places always have shots when it's cold. (Not the North Carolina to Maine BIG event)
Keep expectations for a 1-3, 2-4 and 3-6 type events and we should have that type window from Jan 22- Feb 5 or so.
Saturday, January 4, 2014
Very cold air on tap Monday- Tuesday
Friday was out cold day with high below freezing and lows in the lower teens this AM.
Moderation on tap today, maybe a little freezing rain in the AM tomorrow, showers then the NEXT cold air attack. We should make a run at 0, but may fall short. (3-5 degrees likely Tuesday AM)
Looking at my Winter outlook, not bad so far as we've not had ANY accumulation snow and the mean storm track has been to our west. We've had some sharp cold outbreaks, but the warmth has lasted long enough to keep things +3 or or so, with it being a much more active storm pattern going forward.
It seems like we will have break from any pending winter weather outbreaks for a while by weeks end and from there is where it gets dicey. Some think that we continue to have cold air JUST to our west, but timing will be continue to be off where it's cold and storms approach as the cold air is leaving. Usually, you will get burned on that type of pattern with eventually 1-2 major snow and ice events. Other thing the mean trough moves east (trough in weather = cold and storym) and we could get a nice 2-3 week run of cold and storms (and yes, snow)
If I had to chose, I'd lean to option one, repeating our pattern but 1-2 pretty big deal events for ice and snow events. I'd target Jan 20-Feb 10th as key times for winter type precipitation events.
If you have an outdoor thermometer-- let me know how low it gets at your house!
Moderation on tap today, maybe a little freezing rain in the AM tomorrow, showers then the NEXT cold air attack. We should make a run at 0, but may fall short. (3-5 degrees likely Tuesday AM)
Looking at my Winter outlook, not bad so far as we've not had ANY accumulation snow and the mean storm track has been to our west. We've had some sharp cold outbreaks, but the warmth has lasted long enough to keep things +3 or or so, with it being a much more active storm pattern going forward.
It seems like we will have break from any pending winter weather outbreaks for a while by weeks end and from there is where it gets dicey. Some think that we continue to have cold air JUST to our west, but timing will be continue to be off where it's cold and storms approach as the cold air is leaving. Usually, you will get burned on that type of pattern with eventually 1-2 major snow and ice events. Other thing the mean trough moves east (trough in weather = cold and storym) and we could get a nice 2-3 week run of cold and storms (and yes, snow)
If I had to chose, I'd lean to option one, repeating our pattern but 1-2 pretty big deal events for ice and snow events. I'd target Jan 20-Feb 10th as key times for winter type precipitation events.
If you have an outdoor thermometer-- let me know how low it gets at your house!
Sunday, December 29, 2013
Cold still coming-- Snow no chance.
Maybe some light snow, rain or flurries Tuesday AM, but no real shot of anything more.
Was totally wrong on the Thursday event-- won't do much of anything.
Cold air still incoming-- a few days 32 degree range.
Can't seem to break the cycle of Cold shot, cold air departs as storm approaches and then warm up for storm, back to colder temps. Need some blocking in the northern Atlantic to lock our cold air in.
Was totally wrong on the Thursday event-- won't do much of anything.
Cold air still incoming-- a few days 32 degree range.
Can't seem to break the cycle of Cold shot, cold air departs as storm approaches and then warm up for storm, back to colder temps. Need some blocking in the northern Atlantic to lock our cold air in.
Saturday, December 28, 2013
Cold is coming is a lock-- snow is POSSIBLE.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all--
Dusting off the weather blog to do some updates.
December has been an active month with a few "winter type storms"..
Temps have been what I expected, slightly above normal. We are running a +3 on the month, but 2 days have bumped that up where the lows were in the MID 50's-60 ish rather than mid 30s or so. We'd be in my 1-2 range I thought if not. We should end up between 2-3+ for the month.
It has been much more stormy than I had anticipated. We should be 3-4 inches above normal precipitation wise by months end with the rain coming tomorrow.
More cold air is heading our way.
1. One model shows a round of snow Monday night into Tuesday AM-- this is ONLY the NAM and it usually stinks in this range. It be coating to a couple inches. There is some energy on the backside of a cold front that causes this. Not buying this-- but it's on the "watch" list.
2. Some VERY cold air comes in New Years Day-- highs in the 20's a couple days.
3. A stronger piece of energy comes in Jan 2-3. Models have been all over the place, but something called the ensembles have slowly agreed on a more southerly track that keeps the cold air in place (It's been an issue with no blocking to the north to hold our cold air in place.
The air is VERY cold and as modeled now, it's not a super wet storm with modeled precipitation being near .5 to .6 of an inch. However, with it being very cold aloft, snow rations could be more like 15-1 so .5 could be 7-8 inches.
Key issues will be how strong the upper air energy is and can we keep the cold air in place, but not TOO strong to suppress the storm to our south.
This is MUCH higher on my list than the Monday night event. :) Will update as needed...
Dusting off the weather blog to do some updates.
December has been an active month with a few "winter type storms"..
Temps have been what I expected, slightly above normal. We are running a +3 on the month, but 2 days have bumped that up where the lows were in the MID 50's-60 ish rather than mid 30s or so. We'd be in my 1-2 range I thought if not. We should end up between 2-3+ for the month.
It has been much more stormy than I had anticipated. We should be 3-4 inches above normal precipitation wise by months end with the rain coming tomorrow.
More cold air is heading our way.
1. One model shows a round of snow Monday night into Tuesday AM-- this is ONLY the NAM and it usually stinks in this range. It be coating to a couple inches. There is some energy on the backside of a cold front that causes this. Not buying this-- but it's on the "watch" list.
2. Some VERY cold air comes in New Years Day-- highs in the 20's a couple days.
3. A stronger piece of energy comes in Jan 2-3. Models have been all over the place, but something called the ensembles have slowly agreed on a more southerly track that keeps the cold air in place (It's been an issue with no blocking to the north to hold our cold air in place.
The air is VERY cold and as modeled now, it's not a super wet storm with modeled precipitation being near .5 to .6 of an inch. However, with it being very cold aloft, snow rations could be more like 15-1 so .5 could be 7-8 inches.
Key issues will be how strong the upper air energy is and can we keep the cold air in place, but not TOO strong to suppress the storm to our south.
This is MUCH higher on my list than the Monday night event. :) Will update as needed...
Monday, December 9, 2013
Quick update: Ice wrap up, and maybe a little snow and sleet to end RAIN tomorrow.
We dodged bullet-- had that morning sleet and ice been more intense, I think power outages would have been more common. Instead, things looked cool, pretty- whatever adjective you choose and life is pretty normal.
I'm sure most of you saw footage from the Eagles-Lions game. Pretty incredible that they were expecting up to an inch via forecast, and they got slaughtered with 8 inches in the 95 corridor from Wilminton, DE to the Linc on Broadstreet. This is still an inexact science and mistakes will be made.
Another wave passes through tomorrow. Should start as rain towards morning, could mix with a little sleet and end as a burst of snow. I think the snow idea is a bit far fetched, and you may see a few maps on FB bringing 1-2 or 2-4 inches down to our region. Overdone-- 64 north will be the region that gets the 2-4, maybe 3-6. Will keep you posted, but our best case scenario is 1-2 hours of wet, big flakes falling that MAYBE coat the ground.
I'm sure most of you saw footage from the Eagles-Lions game. Pretty incredible that they were expecting up to an inch via forecast, and they got slaughtered with 8 inches in the 95 corridor from Wilminton, DE to the Linc on Broadstreet. This is still an inexact science and mistakes will be made.
Another wave passes through tomorrow. Should start as rain towards morning, could mix with a little sleet and end as a burst of snow. I think the snow idea is a bit far fetched, and you may see a few maps on FB bringing 1-2 or 2-4 inches down to our region. Overdone-- 64 north will be the region that gets the 2-4, maybe 3-6. Will keep you posted, but our best case scenario is 1-2 hours of wet, big flakes falling that MAYBE coat the ground.
Saturday, December 7, 2013
Late evening Update-- Potential to get much more serious.
We had 2 options to prevent a big ice event. (Colder air was a lock)
1. Colder profile-- more sleet and snow.
2. Less stuff falling.
1. Profile has done a typical CAD where under 5k up has cooled a little and lasted longer while above will warm fast. At some point, the surface will be 29 or so and 5000k will be 50. WOW...
2. Models have trended wetter-- mostly. Minimum is .50 falling, max is up over an inch.
Most ominous is the RGEM-- Note this is in MM, and puts the 460 corridor in 25 mm, which is about an inch, give or take. Orange is right on top of 460.
1. Colder profile-- more sleet and snow.
2. Less stuff falling.
1. Profile has done a typical CAD where under 5k up has cooled a little and lasted longer while above will warm fast. At some point, the surface will be 29 or so and 5000k will be 50. WOW...
2. Models have trended wetter-- mostly. Minimum is .50 falling, max is up over an inch.
Most ominous is the RGEM-- Note this is in MM, and puts the 460 corridor in 25 mm, which is about an inch, give or take. Orange is right on top of 460.
Will update on FB on twitter from here. PM w any specific questions.
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