Another minor event

A storm is passing WELL to our west in the upper Great Plains. With that, a warmer push of air is going to create some precipitation in our region and we should get a burst of snow and sleet towards daybreak. 

NWS has an advisory for west of the Blue Ridge-- lower regions expect 1-2 inches of snow and sleet and higher 1-3 with both places at risk for a glaze of ice. 

Lynchburg is not under an advisory yet, but the forecast map created in Blacksburg has us getting a coating to an inch...

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/rnk/emer/emer.php

Southside may avoid most of the snow and ice. 

Expect school delays in the AM>...

Saturday Storm wrap up--

Pretty intense local event-- the NAM was on to something with a stronger band, but it was more NORTH SOUTH vs SE to NW. Also, because of the limited scope of a model-- it was a more defined pause of either IN our OUT of the band.. no real tapering. Places in Appomattox had up to 8 inches. A friend reported close to 4 inches in Eastern Campbell county but said a 5 minute drive towards LYH went to NO snow. On the way home from the moster truck show there was NO snow until I got off on 460 BUSINESS west-- by the 7/11 and then the ground was covered. Once I passed Lowes on Timberlake, there was NO snow again. 

Strong storm-- just the upper air energy had not consolidated before it passed our region. It has become a MAJOR storm over the Northern Atlantic Ocean. 

Could be a snowy day in parts of our area??

Part one of the storm has come and gone with LITTLE rain. I know LYH airport officialy had a Trace of rain. At some point in the evening I had some drizzle, but it never amounted to much. Further, a friend shot me an overnight text and reported some light snow in the 2-3 AM time frame. (Yeah, people do those nice things for me because of this hobby)

Round two is getting fired up. 

Model review-

NAM- Has a strong band that pushes up from the SE to the NW somewhere between lets say Altavista and Amherst. In that band, a few inches fall. Outside of it, coating to an inch. The NAM is a short term model-- may have an edge here. 

GFS- has a general 1-2 inch snowfall from lets say LYH and DAN east. 

Super short term models RAP and HRRR. These update hourly.

RAP- really over emphasizes that big band and dumps up to 5 inches for those under it. Outside it, coating to an inch.Shows it much closer to LYH in the same general area. 

HRRR- Has a heavier area, but it's further east-- does NOT really get the greater LYH area. 

My thoughts-- I think Further east has the best shot of anything over an inch. LYH may see a coating. Roanoke maybe flurries. South Boston to Just west of Richmond may see 1-3

Will use Twitter and FB to update from here but I'm taking my boys to the Monster Truck show this afternoon, so I'll be cut off for a while. :) If it starts to snow good, flip on radar-- that may be your best bet. 

House of Cards.

This winter has been interesting with many events but all of them VERY small. Fragile house of cards on tap that could collapse either way.

Guess what-- he comes ANOTHER or two.

Today will be very mild as we have a cold front approaching, SW winds in front put us WELL into the 50's this afternoon. Temps will cool off quickly and a little impulse along the wave will induce some light rain that could end as a light snow. At best, we COULD see a coating out of this overnight.

From the odds makers- Tonight.

Basically dry 25%
A little rain ending as snow, if you don't see it you won't knot it happened. 65%
Coating to an inch of snow 15%


From there, a second piece of energy rotates through tomorrow and forms a low pressure NEAR the Outer Banks. This system is interesting in that the models are trying to developed some type of inverted trough. If this happens, we could see this but a coating or even a couple inches is possible. This will be a have or have nots where some places see 2-3 inches and others get nothing.

Odds for Saturday- which at this time FAVOR eastern regions.

1. A few flurries 40%
2. Coating to an inch, especially eastern parts 40%
3. 1-3 inches localized areas 20%

I'll update FB and twitter later today with ideas. If you want a coating, tomorrow looks much better.

Saturday Morning Coffee

Well, If you felt neglected during the recent bouts of small snow, sleet and cold-- my apologies. Sometimes it's hard to blog when we MAY get a half inch. Those parade of clippers did about what I expected here and that storm Thursday night wasn't a big deal in our region BUT Roanoke was the crush zone with 3-4 inches in the city and reports up to 5-6 just outside the city. I would not of been shocked with an inch or two but the end results were incredible.

Our Weather- 2 chances of snow in the next 8-9 days.

1. Valentines day- some of the models have pushed a storm towards us. With minimal cold air in place, I like this storm better for Harrisonburg north. The Euro is not on the storm yet, so by no means is this a lock.

2. Presidents Day weekend. Some data has signaled a shot at a larger storm. It's been harder to get a larger winter type storm with winter so I'm not locking this in, but the potential exists. This is a better set up then valentines day.


Pic of the day-

If you watched any of the storm coverage last night-- an incredible band of snow crashed ashore over long island and CT. Reports of 7 inches plus in an hour.

I've taken pics before in 3 inches an hour. The light makes it look different and it was NOTHING close to this. 

Light ice event..

** edit at 5PM ***

NWS has upgrade the entire region to a Freezing Rain Advisory.

not a very WET system as total precipitation will be maybe .10 to .15, but colder ground temps and surface temps in the upper 20's and low 30's will make for some NASTY road conditions through mid to late morning.




National Weather Service issued a winter weather advisories for all the counties along and east of the Blue Ridge. The freezing will be light-- maybe .10 total falls out the sky but with the colder temps as of late and LIGHT stuff falling it has the makings for a disaster in the am. Half the issue is that folks may not see the ice on their driveway, get on the road and there is just a few slick spots here and there. There was an event in December of 2007 where there was .02 precipitation and the road were just a disaster.

Side note-- If I were king of the world, We'd of had advisories everywhere Friday BEFORE 10 am. It was a situation with the cold temps, even an inch would make a traffic issue-- and that's clearly what we had Friday.

Tomorrow-- The freeze line appears to be south and East of Lynchburg. With that, I'd push the advisories into Lynchburg, Campbell and maybe even Appomattox counties. Better safe than sorry. :)

Be safe tomorrow morning. By 10 am, we look to be all good again. Expect school delays.

Snow Event

This has not been a fun event. Cold temps, dry air and models all over the place. And, being all over the place varies snow from 1-3 inches. It's not a huge storm and never really had high side potential. However, I take time and put my best effort into these forecast.

The air is very cold and dry, the upper air support is meager and weak and the energy is transferring to a coastal low that will scoot away from the coast. It's a losing process all around.

I've made minor changes to my ideas. 2-5 NRV, MT Empire and those areas. I think sleet pushes in down south towards Danville, Martinsville and South Boston eventually. Roanoke gets around 2 in the city proper and east towards LYH is about an inch region wide. However, some of the high resolution models are picking up on a decent band of snow forming near the NRV and pushing east just along and south of 460. So, Roanoke and Lynchburg in this path. If THIS happens, a quick 2-3 inches is possible in those regions.

Friday, January 26th 2013

Will update early AM if needed, but just know that MOST areas east of Roanoke are in the ONE inch side of things. Be safe, even if it's a dusting. Colder temps, way down near 10-15 tonight will make the roads rough quickly. It's my experience that either extreme slush list last week during the HEAVY snow or lighter snow with cold temps makes for the worst driving.

Flurries tonight-- Accumulating snow possible Friday

The cold has arrived and we are sitting at a chilly 14 degrees this AM. If we can get through today in Lynchburg below freezing, we may not touch freezing until the weekend.

A fast moving clipper system comes through tonight and could drop a few flurries. Some places- especially north of Covington to Amherst line may see a quick coating. Not a big deal. The problem arises in the fact that this system is a bit close to our Friday system and drives our reinforcing cold air a little further south AND inhibits our storm Friday and may decrease our potential snow.

The "magical" ECMWF- which did decent in our area on last weeks storm but was WAY to far north with the model showing snow into DC when it didn't really make it north of Charlottsville shows a nice 2-4 storm east of the Blue Ridge with maybe up to 5-6 west. The rest of the model data is showing as little as a coating with maybe up to an inch or two.

As of now, I'm splitting the difference and going 1-3 East of the Blue Ridge and 2-4 west, south of Staunton. We should have a better handle on this later tonight and into Thursday.

The cold will continue into early next week before a brief break.