Here comes the BOOM!

All overnight data looks as good, if not better. 

I was tempted to upgrade west regions to 8-12 and east to 4-8. but going to resist as of now. Just know that   literally anywhere the extreme banding sets up has potential for more than forecast. Brief map. West of green line is 6-10 with the best banding places getting 12. East is 3-6 with local spots up to 8.  I highlighted a couple spots that I think can get those higher amounts. West of the Blue Ridge-- SW side of NRV down towards Hillsville and the Mt. Empire. East of the Blue Ridge-- Northeast of Lynchburg EARLY may catch some good banding as the set up and then later in the evening Danville, Martinsville and South Boston may catch the better rates longer.

Final Call to "grade me" on. 

Changeover Times Estimates.  

As the stronger lift moves in, there could be a couple hours of mix of snow and sleet in heavier burst, but eventually it will be snow and heavy stuff. If we flip sooner, watch out.

NRV, MT Empire - North up, bending east to north of Amherst -81 between noon and 2.

Roanoke- Lynchburg. 2 and 4 PM

Danville-Martinsville- South Boston 4 and 7 PM.


Strong possibility of Thunder. Best hour rates may be 2-3 inches for 2-3 hours. Possible tree damage due to wet ground and heavy wet snow.

Add me as a friend on FB- Keith Huffman

Twitter- Lynchburgwx

No blogs likely, FB and tweets.

Quick update-- is this legit?

Early evening thoughts--

This has the potential to be a very fun and memorable event. Doubt we set any snowfall records, (Maybe daily, need to check) but 7 inches falling in 4 hours would be good fun. 

However, tough system to track and as I've stated- even if it plays out on as depicted on the best models for snow, there will be winners and losers based on where the banding sets up. So, 3-6 outlook may see YOUR backyard get 2 but many others get 6-7. It won't be a uniform snow total. Banding isn't really modeled well- so that's another forecasting concern. 

Also, most places start as rain-- and it won't be that cold. So, some folks will start whining about the weatherman blowing another. I'd recommend following Sean Sublette and Jamey Singleton on FB and Twitter for other resources for current trends on the weather.

If it were up to me, I'd of gone warning region wide. 2-4, while very plausible is on the low end. As of now, All the counties WEST of the Blue Ridge are 4-8 and east are 2-4. Further, there are Winter Storm Warnings to our West and North, and watches to our south and east. To single out 4-5 counties East of the Blue Ridge is confusing and with the fast onset and potential for more, it's my belief it was the more prudent choice. With that, if we all get a couple inches east of the Blue Ridge, they'll look great.

Things that can go wrong-

This is being driven by that upper air low I graphed yesterday. The exact strength, track and speed play a huge role. If it ends up a tad weaker and faster-- we won't see as much. If it's a bit stronger and slower-- we could see a foot. The point being, while I am optimistic about this event there are more factors that we can't control in forecasting. So, if you want snow-- hope that ULL goes a little slower and stays closed (stronger) as long as possible. 

I'll do a full update later this evening with an actual map. Busy day tomorrow trying to work before the snow starts, but I'll tweet and FB all day as needed. I don't foresee any major changes in my 3-6 east and 6-10 west because I'd rather massage up if needed than forecast a foot and have the average be 2 inches. Just keep in mind that "potential" is certainly there. 

Twitter-- Lynchburgwx

FB- Keith Huffman-- Subscribe or friend me as I use hootsuite to update FB and twitter at the same time. 

Some of the snowier models kick the ROA and LYH areas to snow early afternoon. Be ready for bad travel, school closings and a general mess. 

The exact speed and strength of that "closed upper air low" is a  huge factor.

We could be in store for a WILD ride...

What a RAPID shift yesterday--

Winter Storm watches in effect EVERYWHERE west of the Blue Ridge. My hunch is if the model data holds serve, they expand it region wide. 

There are off hour runs of the GFS and NAM, both are still the crazy snow changover- but timed a bit different. GFS is over to snow much faster-- but the event is faster. NAM waits a while, but last longer. In the end, results are about the same. 

If you want a "first guess"

Areas west of the Blue Ridge-- 5-10, high elevations may see 12. 

East of the Blue Ridge- 3-6, local spots up to 8. 

Going to be some issues-- change over will happen quickly in the NRV and Highlands- and then slide east. If you are out when it changes, roads will get bad QUICKLY. If nothing changes on the model data, it will be ROUGH travelling. Further, While the NAM radar looks impressive, these band have a life of their own, You may see and inch or two and your brother 40 miles away sees 8. 

Here are two simulated radar shots from the NAM, (slower with the system model)

Yellow is what you often see under thunderstorms-- and once you get under the yellow, it's likely snow. 

First shot is at 7 PM tomorrow and second is 10 PM. Mega band just ROLLS our region. 

Per this model- 7 PM-- just getting crushed NRV ROA up and down 81. 

And three hours later it rolls through the rest of the area. Snow rates 1-3 inches in that band for 3-5 hours. 

From Bat Signal engaged

**Euro is on board, not as spectacular as the other models. However, LYH went from about  quarter inch of liquid to almost an inch. Getting the 6-8 inches was a tall order. I'd be thrilled with a 1-2 inch snowfall Thursday**

To Bat out of hell ..

If the Euro jumps on board, you will hear BIG time honking Wednesday AM about snow Thursday.

Will update this when ECMWF comes out.


The Set Up....

Lost in the inches of rain has been a slow, meandering upper air low coming out the southwest. Traditional thought is outside of 3 days, hard to get 2 separate systems back to back that close.

So, a few model runs here and there have been showing the second just sneaking in a bring a rain to snow even and they've been dismissed. As we've moved closer, the southern ULL has held together and is modeled stronger. The temps are initially too warm, but the ULL cools the atmosphere and shows the system going from HEAVY rain to HEAVY snow. Often, if model data shows a cold front pushing in and a switch from rain to snow, they struggle. However, getting a vortmax in the right spot is a GREAT way to get that rapid shift.

Until-- the model data mid and late afternoon shifted more towards a possible snow event and so far ALL the models have come on board with rain developing Thursday and then changing to snow-- and then DUMPING snow for 3-5 hours. In that 3-5 hours a GOOD snowfall could happen in the lines of maybe 3-10 inches. These are tricky events, and with the type of banding some places may only get 1-2 inches and other 8-9.

The cool thing is because of the ULL, MUCH of VA, down to even the coast CAN cash in on some snow.

The pictures..

Here is the 500 mb low-- these are often shown by mets on TV-- these are the upper air energy that help form and enhance storms.

500 MB low, goes negative. (tilts NW to SE, common in stronger storms)--heads off the NC coast, perfect for VA snows.

NAM snow map-- NOT a forecast, but snows potential. Purple is 7-8, RED is 10+

Can you get a January thaw

When it was NEVER frozen??

Next week is going to be NICE-- VERY nice.

This weekend will be seasonable and very nice. Next week will heat up to have some days well into the 60's.

However, a term we used quite a bit last year called a "sudden stratospheric warming" is about under way. What this does is breaks down the polar vortex and pushes the cold away from the north pole. This will be underway over the weekend. Lag time before impact is 10-14 days. So, pattern change begins Jan 15th or so but should take another 5 days or so to adjust to our region.

What to expect??

Hard to say looking 2 weeks out, however if we want decent snow if this pattern comes to fruition this may be our best shot at a wintry couple weeks. The cold air seems to start in the plans and mid west and then build east. Tough call, because the last cold snap was more west based and built east. This seems to have a better set up with what is called "cross polar flow" meaning the air is coming from the coldest regions rather then last time where it wasn't SUPER cold.

Can this fail??

Well, the SSW is a lock. The only issue we can see with these is the cold goes to the wrong side of the globe. It happened last year. However, the arctic oscillation hit -3 in December and it seems to be heading that way again. (stats show that is likely). That should being some cold air to our side of the globe. Next issue is getting the fully into the east coast region-- which should happen, but not till after January 20th.

I will update late this weekend.

SNOW!!!

Model data- Worst type of storm with no real hedge.

Looking at the 0z NAM-- it's literally an 4-5 hour event if that. Flurries or drizzle for an hour, bangs to decent snow for 2 hours and ends as drizzle/flurries. Maybe an inch or two anywhere east of the  Mountains NORTH of the Staunton River.

SO, 1-3 mountains, Coating to 2 inches east of Mountains. Get up early-- snow ends fast and melts by early afternoon. :)

Danville, South Boston, barring a miracle this won't be your event.

**Heading to my Dad's in Parkesburg, WV-- stopped for the night in Lewisburg for the snow and a swim at the hotel. We already got a little sledding in. Hoping to get 4 inches out of this event up here**

The little event that won't--

If you've read my tendencies, you'd note that I usually blog when I feel strongly about the event. So, a blog this AM on the cusp of our first possible accumulating snow isn't a good sign.

Strike 1- Marginal temps. No model gets the last 2-4k feet below freezing.

Strike 2. Strung out low pressure. That's not a good sign for heaving precipitation. With temps near or above freezing we'd need heavy stuff to cool the atmosphere and or accumulate.

Strike 3- total QPF is forecast between .15 and .25-- that's much much either way and we know it will mix.

The NWS forecast is under and inch of snow in Roanoke and maybe a little ice in Lynchburg. These seem about right. Places like Blacksburg and Radford could see 2-3 inches and Hot Springs and Lewisburg could see 2-4 or so. Will update if any major changes, but I'm not expecting any. If anywhere east of the Blue Ridge sees an inch, consider that a blessing from the snow gods.