Isaac-- South and weak

Isaac has been an interesting storm so far. While the conversation swirled around where he would cross Hispaniola and the track from there, the bigger concern SHOULD have been it's overall lack of strength. It has been unable to to pull together one main center and as a result has not gain much strength.

We briefly had Joyce, but she's back to a depression.

Isaac- I still favor the southern track. It should start to get somewhat stronger, hit Cuba as a stronger tropical storm and once it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico, it's a hot tub there and it could have a day or two of RAPID strengthening. That's my preferred track at this time but we've not ruled out any other options at this time. I wish I had stated my "target" at that point was Pensacola, FL because it's been fun watching the models trend where I thought they would. With that, models are just guidance and we can expect wild swings in this thing still.

Summary- Isaac scrapes far western Haiti, goes across much of Cuba as a rainy but weak tropical storm and emerges in the Gulf of Mexico early Monday. If it follows the NHC and my preferred track, we could see a Cat 3 in the GOM at some point late Monday/early Tuesday. Anyone on the western side of FL all they way over the LA/TX border should keep keep their eyes and ears open.

Quick Isaac Update

Track has been a little north of what I thought-- and on some levels seems destined to bump into every piece of land possible-- hits Hispaniola, scrapes Cuba, near the southern tip of FL and along the W coast of FL. With all the land obstacles in the near future, the best chance we have of seeing this thing become a STRONGER hurricane is if it can migrate west into GOM away from land. 

Latest NHC Map--

Will update later with latest guidance and more detailed speculation. 

Isaac on the docket...

Isaac formed and is now not far from impacting the Leeward Islands by this time tomorrow. It should hit Hurricane status just past this point.


From here, the speculation is does it stay far enough south and NOT get beat up badly by Hispaniola. There are mountain peaks OVER 10k ft on that island and it would not be the first time a 'Cane never reached it's potential due to land interaction. Guidance has shown some variety-and the NHC has marked this as the most likely track.

It will eventually take a NW jog-- and it depends how quickly.

My guess so far is it takes the south side of the "cone" over the next 24 hours and we will adjust from there. US interest from FL SW into the Gulf should monitor at this point.

Here's a quick loop from the GFDL-- crosses the storm over Hispaniola, emerges into the Bahamas and hits in the vicinity of Miami.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfdl/18zgfdl500mbHGHTPMSLgfdlLoop.html

Cooler and a little rainy pattern on the way..

Cool, rainy Sunday this week with SOME heavier spots were 1-2 inches fell especially to the west of Lynchburg. There was a sinkhole on 81 in between Lexington and Staunton today. I checked the some of the rainfall totals and didn't see anything too extreme so my first guess is this could have just been a long standing issue. However, not having data from this exact spot makes this a big guess.

This pattern will persist for the first few days this week and we will have some chances of showers and thunderstorms through the early part of the week. 

The tropics may be heating up. We do have Gordon taking the rare form and move west to east and should be very close to Portugal in a couple days but likely down to just a tropical depression. After that, a system about 1000 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands looks prime to develop into something very soon. This has  a decent chance of being a "news maker". 

 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Ernesto chase video

As promised-

Josh Morgerman - a hardcore storm chaser and founder of iCyclone has posted his video from Ernesto.

iCylcone


Cool graph of the barometer from his location--

Barometer drop


Link to his FB page--

iCyclone

Friday Storms.

This spring/summer has been above active storm wise for something you would remember--

HUGE hail event in late March that was up to 6 inches deep in places, Derecho event on June 29th that knocked out power to 90% or more of the region.

Friday MAY add to that event. At this point-- the SPC has placed our area under a 30% risk for 25 miles of any specific point. Considering we are 72-90 hours away-- that's a pretty bold call. We've got a stronger cold front moving in, and the deciding factor may end up being how much sun we get Friday. If we keep the cloud cover from the storms Thursday (not likely to be WIDE severe that day) Despite good parameters, we could avoid another significant event.

Tropical Wise, Florence formed and dissipated without much fanfare, as we expected. Ernesto has been all over the place forecast wise, but seems like it will make landfall in the Belize/ Mexico Yucatan region. top winds are around 80 MPH currently and could MAYBE touch 90 before landfall. I've got a friend who is a dedicated chaser and I'll share some of his updated when it gets rolling down there. His website is
http://icyclone.com/

Rainy pattern update--

This should be a cooler and somewhat wetter weak upcoming. I do think the best rain totals and rain coverage is south of our region, but a region wide .5 to 2 inch rain event is likely.

Latest QPF from the HPC shows minor changes--Best chance for rain will be Monday and then more showery and thunderstorm stuff Tuesday into Wednesday.



Earnesto is in trouble-- has not strengthened as much as thought AND is too far south. Landfall maybe Hondorus and or Belieze. Latest NHC plot--

Florence formed as we thought--as it progresses east, likely to NOT become a Hurricane and may just weaken as it goes well north of the Caribbean Islands. I don't see this as much of a threat to anyone.