Highs will be 75-82 region wide today with winds developing out of S and SW -- Gusts could be in excess of 40 MPH.
A strong cold front hits our region later tonight-- later this afternoon and early evening, MS, TN and AL are under the gun. Don't be shocked to see reports of tornadoes down that region. The risks here are more confined to strong gusty winds, heavy rain and MAYBE small hail.
Keep tuned to media outlets for updates on the severe weather. If you don't have LynchburgWx on twitter-- add please and I update on Facebook directly- Keith D. Huffman
Monday, April 4, 2011
Friday, April 1, 2011
Winter Round Up---April 1
With the early spring snow threats-- I decided to wait until all those threats were over to "grade" my winter outlook.
Tough winter both on a long range outlook and even on the day to day storms and weather, the model data struggled on many levels.
Here are my initial thoughts in the 10-11 winter outlook.
http://lynchburgweather.blogspot.com/2010/11/winter-outlook-2010-2011.html?showComment=1288745159520#c437893978100543863
Season Temp. Forecast +2 above normal
Seasonal Snowfall 5-10 inches. (Same forecast for Roanoke, 2-5 inches for the Danville region) 10-18 inches for the NRV, The favored high elevations of the region get more due to upslope snows. (AKA, places were I doubt anyone will read this blog)
Higher risk for ice storms.
Monthly breakdown temp bread down
December-
-2 below normal
January
Starts cooler but ends warm
+2
February
+4
Still has some colder outbreaks, just warmer overall.
As the long wave pattern adjusts to spring, March will feature rapid swings (Normal to some extent in March) with a higher then normal risk of wintry weather.
** My over all ideas were NOT horrible, just the cold was MUCH more extreme, Region wide, we were 7-9 degrees below normal for the month of December. The shift in the overall pattern became apparent in late December but the switch wasn't made until Mid January and the cold lingered most of the month and we averaged between -1 and -3 degrees below normal compared to my predicted +2. February did flip to a mild pattern and we were region wide 2-4 degrees above normal.
Snowfall-- Very good in the NRV to ROA to LYH. Danville went well over and this is due to the pretty the extreme cold first half of winter favored souther and eastern regions. Virginia Beach has 2x the snow totals of Lynchburg and Roanoke. While this is a crap shoot on some level, I believe this is a level of skill involved and the past two years I don't think you'd find a better local "snow guess" for the winter.
Over all grade?? I'd take a B maybe a C+. The biggest stink was the EXTREME cold in December. Reality is no one in the right mind would forecast a -8 departure for a month. BUT, Had I gone extreme of let's say .-4 I'd be much happier with my forecast.
The Good-- Snowfall totals, overall idea of first cold half-- focused on December, DRY all winter and Warm February.
The BAD-- Not cold enough in December, Pattern change was much more delayed in January. I thought we'd lose the cold mid month and it was more like late month. The overall numbers are REALLY skewed by the extreme cold in December. The two week delay in the flip really hurt my January numbers. Really no major ice threats. This goes hand in hand with the COLD being TOO cold and suppressed the overall pattern the first six weeks of winter. I'd have to check, but I can't recall only 1 day of freezing rain-- December 16th.
I'm going to skip a "spring" outlook but will release a summer outlook by the middle of May. This will included an Atlantic Hurricane Outlook, Regional Temps including estimates of days over 90 (When it gets really nasty hot) and dig into if this drought condition gets better or worse.
Tough winter both on a long range outlook and even on the day to day storms and weather, the model data struggled on many levels.
Here are my initial thoughts in the 10-11 winter outlook.
http://lynchburgweather.blogspot.com/2010/11/winter-outlook-2010-2011.html?showComment=1288745159520#c437893978100543863
Season Temp. Forecast +2 above normal
Seasonal Snowfall 5-10 inches. (Same forecast for Roanoke, 2-5 inches for the Danville region) 10-18 inches for the NRV, The favored high elevations of the region get more due to upslope snows. (AKA, places were I doubt anyone will read this blog)
Higher risk for ice storms.
Monthly breakdown temp bread down
December-
-2 below normal
January
Starts cooler but ends warm
+2
February
+4
Still has some colder outbreaks, just warmer overall.
As the long wave pattern adjusts to spring, March will feature rapid swings (Normal to some extent in March) with a higher then normal risk of wintry weather.
** My over all ideas were NOT horrible, just the cold was MUCH more extreme, Region wide, we were 7-9 degrees below normal for the month of December. The shift in the overall pattern became apparent in late December but the switch wasn't made until Mid January and the cold lingered most of the month and we averaged between -1 and -3 degrees below normal compared to my predicted +2. February did flip to a mild pattern and we were region wide 2-4 degrees above normal.
Snowfall-- Very good in the NRV to ROA to LYH. Danville went well over and this is due to the pretty the extreme cold first half of winter favored souther and eastern regions. Virginia Beach has 2x the snow totals of Lynchburg and Roanoke. While this is a crap shoot on some level, I believe this is a level of skill involved and the past two years I don't think you'd find a better local "snow guess" for the winter.
Over all grade?? I'd take a B maybe a C+. The biggest stink was the EXTREME cold in December. Reality is no one in the right mind would forecast a -8 departure for a month. BUT, Had I gone extreme of let's say .-4 I'd be much happier with my forecast.
The Good-- Snowfall totals, overall idea of first cold half-- focused on December, DRY all winter and Warm February.
The BAD-- Not cold enough in December, Pattern change was much more delayed in January. I thought we'd lose the cold mid month and it was more like late month. The overall numbers are REALLY skewed by the extreme cold in December. The two week delay in the flip really hurt my January numbers. Really no major ice threats. This goes hand in hand with the COLD being TOO cold and suppressed the overall pattern the first six weeks of winter. I'd have to check, but I can't recall only 1 day of freezing rain-- December 16th.
I'm going to skip a "spring" outlook but will release a summer outlook by the middle of May. This will included an Atlantic Hurricane Outlook, Regional Temps including estimates of days over 90 (When it gets really nasty hot) and dig into if this drought condition gets better or worse.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
2 more threats of rain, with maybe a little snow.
We are in the middle of a crazy late season cold and stormy spell-- despite our system not really panning out as anticipated, the threat THIS late was rather interesting.
A system approaches our area tomorrow-- and again the higher elevations to our NW may get some accumulating snows. From Lexington north, up 81 East to the Blue Ridge may get a coating to maybe 3 inches at the highest elevations.
Again, the parade of storms continues and storm approaches Thursday-- same set up, different day where the highest elevations have a shot to get some accumulations.
Both tomorrow and Thursday have the chance to see some flakes flying in the Lynchburg/Roanoke region-- but I anticipate the best shot for more then flakes in the air will be at the highest elevations.
I won't be shocked if either tomorrow or Thursday has a heavy enough burst to coat the ground with snow for a short time in ROA/LGB.
I won't be shocked if either tomorrow or Thursday has a heavy enough burst to coat the ground with snow for a short time in ROA/LGB.
Sunday, March 27, 2011
Ya Blew it boy, you REALLY blew it (Krammer voice)
Last nights event was HORRIBLE-- Yeah, I stayed low but NOT low enough. Around 11 PM I figured we were toast-- hoped that band I mentioned via twitter would pull it through for an inch, but between the warm ground and the sleet mix it just wasn't in the cards. Models are guidance and nothing more. One key issue that modeling doesn't handle well is convection on the south end of storms. There were severe storms riding through AL and GA and in effect that robbed our moisture for our snow event. This is a well researched area and they can even gauge the impact based on the angle and trajectory of the storms, but it's hard to quantify the impact on total precipitation.
What killed us was a lack of total precipitation and nothing more. Most models ran between .40 and .75 or so consistently-- and at 10 PM the NAM which lead the way dropped us back to .20. We ended up with .16 total liquid.
There is another system dropping to our south late tonight. With our luck-- watch this one do BETTER compared to our system of failure last night. Galax to Danville has the best shot to see a coating to an inch.
If anything more important develops-- I'll update. Stormy and cool pattern for the next week or so with 2-3 shots of rain .
What killed us was a lack of total precipitation and nothing more. Most models ran between .40 and .75 or so consistently-- and at 10 PM the NAM which lead the way dropped us back to .20. We ended up with .16 total liquid.
There is another system dropping to our south late tonight. With our luck-- watch this one do BETTER compared to our system of failure last night. Galax to Danville has the best shot to see a coating to an inch.
If anything more important develops-- I'll update. Stormy and cool pattern for the next week or so with 2-3 shots of rain .
Saturday, March 26, 2011
Final thoughts before game time---
Fun late season event-- and basically harmless. There's not really going to be enough snow falling to cause any tree damage, the warm ground will melt this fast and despite me being certain it is going to snow, the total amount is a little uncertain.
I'm not wavering on my call of 1-3 for MOST areas. Blacksburg, Roanoke and Lynchburg along 460 will be in this zone. The southern line of an inch will be south of Gretna line, heading SW towards Max Meadows. The best accumulations will fall above 2k feet NORTH of Roanoke- Lexington, Stauton, Waynesboro, Hot Springs-- those locations. These places could see 4-6 inches.
In the lower elevations the inhibiting factor for 4-5 inches is a little mix and very wet snow the first couple hours.
The models have varied enough that there certainly is a chance we get a little more or less then anticipated-- and of course I will update as needed.
I'm not wavering on my call of 1-3 for MOST areas. Blacksburg, Roanoke and Lynchburg along 460 will be in this zone. The southern line of an inch will be south of Gretna line, heading SW towards Max Meadows. The best accumulations will fall above 2k feet NORTH of Roanoke- Lexington, Stauton, Waynesboro, Hot Springs-- those locations. These places could see 4-6 inches.
In the lower elevations the inhibiting factor for 4-5 inches is a little mix and very wet snow the first couple hours.
The models have varied enough that there certainly is a chance we get a little more or less then anticipated-- and of course I will update as needed.
Late evening **Snow** Update *Sat am update*
Saturday AM update-- NWS out of Blacksburg side with me and upgrade our region to an advisory to 1-3 inches-- up to 4 in the Blue Ridge.
With the the time change--- weather model's are running a little later and the bottom line of that is I'm staying up another hour. VCU has 2 minutes to lock this up so I can sleep.
The NAM and GFS have run and the data hasn't changed much. The GFS hints that there could still be a sleet issue for a while and the NAM is still the outlier, putting down almost 3/4 of an inch of liquid from this system. I expect Roanoke and Lynchburg to end up with maybe .4 give or take .10 of total precipt falling during this event.
This is only a "big deal" because it's coming on the tails of some great weather and late March snows are rare around here. I can't 100% rule out over 3 inches in the 460 corridor but it's unlikely.
I like my original call-- 1-3 inches Blacksburg to Roanoke to Lynchburg with some sleet and snow grains likely mixed for a while Danville Martinsville MAY see some flakes and sleet with a coating. The BIG winners will remain the Blue Ridge areas just to our north with 2-5 inches, maybe a 6-7 inch total from Hot Springs or Afton Mt.
With the the time change--- weather model's are running a little later and the bottom line of that is I'm staying up another hour. VCU has 2 minutes to lock this up so I can sleep.
The NAM and GFS have run and the data hasn't changed much. The GFS hints that there could still be a sleet issue for a while and the NAM is still the outlier, putting down almost 3/4 of an inch of liquid from this system. I expect Roanoke and Lynchburg to end up with maybe .4 give or take .10 of total precipt falling during this event.
This is only a "big deal" because it's coming on the tails of some great weather and late March snows are rare around here. I can't 100% rule out over 3 inches in the 460 corridor but it's unlikely.
I like my original call-- 1-3 inches Blacksburg to Roanoke to Lynchburg with some sleet and snow grains likely mixed for a while Danville Martinsville MAY see some flakes and sleet with a coating. The BIG winners will remain the Blue Ridge areas just to our north with 2-5 inches, maybe a 6-7 inch total from Hot Springs or Afton Mt.
Friday, March 25, 2011
Rare late season snow becoming more likely--
March 30 2003-- a heavy rain switches to a driving heavy wet snow. Roanoke to Blacksburg had 4-8 inches. Lynchburg had 5+ inches fall, but only a 2 inch max depth. At my Forest home-- we had an inch, a lull which allowed it to melt and another 2 inches that accumulated.
This is the last latest snow in our region. In April 2007 we barely missed a late season snow that coating the ground from NE NC-- Mebane NC had a coating.
Same set up as before-- The cold has been trending a smidge colder, but the models do want to punch a warm later through between 7 and 10k feet. This is a tremendously cold air mass so even when this happens, the snow would partially melt and fall as snow grains rather than pure sleet. When I examine the layers of the atmosphere and see that in theory Roanoke and Lynchburg are supposed to change to sleet before Richmond-- usually this indicates this warm air push is not only very likely, but often will occur sooner than modeled.
Brutally cold day Sunday for LATE March- temps may struggle to reach freezing once the snow starts, even with a strong late day March sun.
My best guess now is start time between 10 PM far west to 2 AM far east overnight Saturday into Sunday.
Martinsville to Danville-- rain, mixing with sleet. Sleet could coat the ground.
Blacksburg, Roanoke, Lynchburg-- could have a little rain to start, but snow-- changing to snow grains and sleet ending as flurries. (Snow grains look like rice) 1-3 inches.
Jackpot-- Lexington to Hot Springs to Harrisonburg to Waynesboro into Charlottesville-- 2-5 inches, best accumulations at the highest elevations. Would not be shocked to hear a 6-7 inch total from Afton Mt or some other elevated location.
We are about 48 hours out from this event-- so it has some wiggle room to change. I'm always leery of the "north trend" the models often display. In terns of wiggle room-- we don't have much because Danville starts as rain and changes to sleet as modeled now well into the event. 60 miles isn't much of a jog in 48 hours. Having said that-- there has been remarkable consistency in the models for days now. Still, I've seen the north trend OVER and OVER in years past-- sometimes the models never even show it, but it takes place anyways.
As a result, I'm in full storm mode-- blog updated 2x a day until this event passes by.
This is the last latest snow in our region. In April 2007 we barely missed a late season snow that coating the ground from NE NC-- Mebane NC had a coating.
Same set up as before-- The cold has been trending a smidge colder, but the models do want to punch a warm later through between 7 and 10k feet. This is a tremendously cold air mass so even when this happens, the snow would partially melt and fall as snow grains rather than pure sleet. When I examine the layers of the atmosphere and see that in theory Roanoke and Lynchburg are supposed to change to sleet before Richmond-- usually this indicates this warm air push is not only very likely, but often will occur sooner than modeled.
Brutally cold day Sunday for LATE March- temps may struggle to reach freezing once the snow starts, even with a strong late day March sun.
My best guess now is start time between 10 PM far west to 2 AM far east overnight Saturday into Sunday.
Martinsville to Danville-- rain, mixing with sleet. Sleet could coat the ground.
Blacksburg, Roanoke, Lynchburg-- could have a little rain to start, but snow-- changing to snow grains and sleet ending as flurries. (Snow grains look like rice) 1-3 inches.
Jackpot-- Lexington to Hot Springs to Harrisonburg to Waynesboro into Charlottesville-- 2-5 inches, best accumulations at the highest elevations. Would not be shocked to hear a 6-7 inch total from Afton Mt or some other elevated location.
We are about 48 hours out from this event-- so it has some wiggle room to change. I'm always leery of the "north trend" the models often display. In terns of wiggle room-- we don't have much because Danville starts as rain and changes to sleet as modeled now well into the event. 60 miles isn't much of a jog in 48 hours. Having said that-- there has been remarkable consistency in the models for days now. Still, I've seen the north trend OVER and OVER in years past-- sometimes the models never even show it, but it takes place anyways.
As a result, I'm in full storm mode-- blog updated 2x a day until this event passes by.
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