Winter Round Up---April 1

With the early spring snow threats-- I decided to wait until all those threats were over to "grade" my winter outlook.

Tough winter both on a long range outlook and even on the day to day storms and weather, the model data struggled on many levels.

Here are my initial thoughts in the 10-11 winter outlook.

http://lynchburgweather.blogspot.com/2010/11/winter-outlook-2010-2011.html?showComment=1288745159520#c437893978100543863

Season Temp. Forecast +2 above normal

Seasonal Snowfall 5-10 inches. (Same forecast for Roanoke, 2-5 inches for the Danville region) 10-18 inches for the NRV, The favored high elevations of the region get more due to upslope snows. (AKA, places were I doubt anyone will read this blog)
Higher risk for ice storms. 

Monthly breakdown temp bread down

December-

-2 below normal

January

Starts cooler but ends warm

+2

February

+4
Still has some colder outbreaks, just warmer overall.

As the long wave pattern adjusts to spring, March will feature rapid swings (Normal to some extent in March) with a higher then normal risk of wintry weather.


** My over all ideas were NOT horrible, just the cold was MUCH more extreme, Region wide, we were 7-9 degrees below normal for the month of December. The shift in the overall pattern became apparent in late December but the switch wasn't made until Mid January and the cold lingered most of the month and we averaged between -1 and -3 degrees below normal compared to my predicted +2. February did flip to a mild pattern and we were region wide 2-4 degrees above normal. 


Snowfall-- Very good in the NRV to ROA to LYH. Danville went well over and this is due to the pretty the extreme cold first half of winter favored souther and eastern regions. Virginia Beach has 2x the snow totals of Lynchburg and Roanoke.  While this is a crap shoot on some level, I believe this is a level of skill involved and the past two years I don't think you'd find a better local "snow guess" for the winter. 


Over all grade?? I'd take a B maybe a C+. The biggest stink was the EXTREME cold in December. Reality is no one in the right mind would forecast a -8 departure for a month. BUT, Had I gone extreme of let's say .-4 I'd be much happier with my forecast.


The Good-- Snowfall totals, overall idea of first cold half-- focused on December, DRY all winter and Warm February. 


The BAD-- Not cold enough in December, Pattern change was much more delayed in January. I thought we'd lose the cold mid month and it was more like late month. The overall numbers are REALLY skewed by the extreme cold in December. The two week delay in the flip really hurt my January numbers. Really no major ice threats. This goes hand in hand with the COLD being TOO cold and suppressed the overall pattern the first six weeks of winter. I'd have to check, but I can't recall only 1 day of freezing rain-- December 16th. 


I'm going to skip a "spring" outlook but will release a summer outlook by the middle of May. This will included an Atlantic Hurricane Outlook, Regional Temps including estimates of days over 90 (When it gets really nasty hot) and dig into if this drought condition gets better or worse.