Get these clouds out of here!

I'm hoping we max out today temp wise, which would be mid 70's--- looking at the skies which are somewhat cloudy as of 9 am-- it isn't a good thing. Winds are out of the west and this should help with the temps, but ideally we want these clouds out of here FAST. Clouds o' plenty to our west, so I'm a little concerned the clouds hold us ONLY into the upper 60's.

Looking into the future-- the word will be gradient. There is plenty of arctic air up in Canada, but we also have a strong ridge to our south. Ridging to our south often means WARMTH while the pattern is allowing the cold to come dangerously close to our area.  My idea of a snow event near the Mason Dixon line Monday night and Tuesday is on the table-- every once in a while the computer models will push that system south and try to make it snow here.

I don't expect this to happen--- but I can't totally pull if off the table. I'm attaching a map where I've labeled the pieces of the storm. For the next two weeks-- we are going to be caught in this battle between a decently strong south east ridge, but plenty of cold air in Canada and some physical mechanisms to get it close to our region.
My initial hedge is we stay on the warm side mostly--- but this will have to be watched.

Won't hit 80, but 70 in February is very nice. Watching next Monday/Tuesday for cold and MAYBE.....

Blogging about 70 in February isn't the most exciting thing ever-- even the possibility of 80 was more fun. 70 isn't that rare down here in our region but 80 is hard to do. After the first preview of 80-- the models slowly backed away from the idea. We should reach the low 70's Friday region wide.

We step down temp wise-- 70's Friday, 60's Saturday, 50's Sunday. After Presidents day, a shot of cold air is heading our way. Some of the model data-- the ECMWF 2 nights ago and the GFS last night want to ride a storm along this cold front that COULD bring some snow to the area. Just judging by the normal bias of all the models, I would be that the 5 days out, the best chances for an accumulating snow are closer to the Mason-Dixon line, but I'm not ready to rule it out 100% at this time.

I'm attaching a complimentary snow map--already shows the best snows well to our north, with some of our region getting a coating to an inch or two. With the general trend in models to nudge things north with time, I'd the best snow chances are along the the Mason Dixon line.

This is a fairly strong shot of cold air-- it just depends how far south the cold can push. The storm is riding along the arctic front. 

This isn't a sale, but were slashing temps from 80 to the LOW or mid 70's...

The warmth is on still-- 55-60 today, 60's tomorrow, 55-60 Tues/Weds a little warmer Thursday, and that point the heat cranks up. Aloft, the hottest day will be Friday-- where we are a +15c aloft or so (5k feet) That supports low 70's at the surface. A "cool front" approaches sometime late Friday and or Saturday and we cool aloft. With winds out of the west, the sinking air will supply some additional warmth so I'm not sure whether Friday or Saturday is our warmest day-- but 75 looks like the best bet as of now, rather than 80. 80 is NOT off the table at this time in Danville and Martinsville.

Seasonal snow totals--- VA Beach/ Norfolk with a commanding lead.

Outside the the highest mountain tops, where grandma's cabin is located, here are some seasonal snow totals.


Here are some major airport station seasonal totals through yesterday. ORF still leading the way.

21.4" Norfolk (ORF)
18.1" Blacksburg (RNK)
15.3" Wallops, Island (WAL)
12.1" Baltimore (BWI)
10.7" Richmond (RIC)
10.7" Danville (DAN)
9.6" Roanoke (ROA)
11.8" Washington, DC (IAD)
9.4" Washington, DC (DCA)
8.2" Lynchburg (LYH) 


There is no official data for Charlottesville, but a Co Op station has 7.7 inches of last check. Lynchburg in last outside this unofficial reporting. There is a good chance that Blacksburg finds a way to pass Norfolk, but I have doubts about the rest of the region.  First winter since 1988-89 that Norfolk had the "snow belt" title. 

80 degrees in February??

The much anticipated warm up is well in radar range. 50's tomorrow and MAYBE 60 Sunday-- will make for a welcome change from our 30's and 40's we've had since December. Looking through some data- if everything is right with the sun, the wind direction--- ect, we COULD hit 80 once next week! Best chances would be Danville and Martinsville but I certainly could see this happening in Lynchburg as well. 70's is a lock. 

The bar has been set at 80-- are you taking the over or the under??

Either winter is napping or winter is TKO for the year

Hope you enjoyed the dusting last night. I honestly thought we may squeeze an inch our when I was working up in Waynesboro and snow was falling at 5 PM-- Virga, snow falling in the clouds and evaporating before it reaches the ground killed our snow. Some places to our NW and SE had a coating to an inch. I had the equivalent of "pollen" coating on my car.

The warmth is coming-- 50's to maybe 60's starting Sunday-- no real signs of lasting cold through Feb 25th. Certainly, my heating bill is glad to hear this.

I'm planing some type of a write up on the 2000's snow decade in Lynchburg compared to Philly. Expect that in the next few days.

If we are "lucky" a dusting to an inch is possible

I've not updated simply because there wasn't much to talk about. The northern stream dominated and crushed our southern vort. It blows up to a big storm-- but WELL off shore(800 miles or so) Some energy and moisture will be awfully close so I won't be shocked if we get a few hours of snow flurries/showers that cover the ground SOME places. The odd thing is again-- I can see how the first band of snows actually go to our north and west-- and a second round misses to our south. Just one of those winters.

We get warmer late weekend and early next week--50's on Sunday and 60's Tuesday.

Does winter come back around??


Very possible, but I can't say 100% at this time. The mean troff will be our west for the next couple weeks. Normally, the best chances for snow are those located in the mean troff. Some indications are that the troff begins to slide east late month-- but is also retreating to the North in response to the south east ridge. If this happens, odds are we are mostly warm. This doesn't preclude a rouge could blast and a quick shot of some snow.

Will send a quick update by tomorrow AM--