Sure has been dry?
Rainfall this month..
Blacksburg 8.61 inches
Roanoke 8.48 inches
Lynchburg 7.13 inches
Danville 7.7 inches
Some higher elevations have in excess of 10 inches. All these places run into the James and or Roanoke River.
90% of more has fallen since Monday 9/21
Time crunched and sparring you the synoptic details...
2 options from here.
Either way, I believe we get 2 more "waves" of rain between now and Sunday.
Option 1.. Wave one is dominant, The Hurricane stays far east and we still end up with an additional 2-7 inches of rain. Will have wide spread flooding. Some trees fall as well due to weakened soil.
Option 2- Hurricane gets captured by upper air low and ends up over NC/VA as landfall. Rainfall is still 2 waves, additional rainfall is more in line of 6-15 inches region wide, flooding goes from really bad to about historic. Winds are much stronger. Trees will fall with option one simply because the ground is so wet, with option 2 the winds are much stronger maybe 20-30 sustained with gusts to 50 and trees and power outages will be much more wide spread.
I'm leaning option one as of now with a 70/30 probability.
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