Monday, March 2, 2015

Wednesday Night- Thursday

Please follow me on Twitter--  @Lynchburgwx or follow me on FB personally or my Lynchburg Weather FB page. That's where I can convey some quick thoughts without the total blog post.

Big rain maker comes through and the snow should be melted and gone by Wednesday, and the very day another round of snow and ice is likely at this point.

Why?

Arctic front comes after the first round of rain and slowy sinks through our area. This is a key to the forecast because there is another ripple of energy riding along this cold front and depending on where this sets up, the ice and snow follows.

I about always play the north trend on the models and .. and as of now we are on the bottom rung of decent snows on some models while others go well to our north with about all of the frozen. This would mean that we may get little or no snow and ice.  Those north models are the same ones that pointed last week before the rest of the model date pushed the heavier snow into our area. I give pause a bit because when there is legit arctic air, that's a game changer at times on north trends (AKA, stops it-- reference blogs from last March 3)

I'm going to hedge in the middle now and suggest that the Heaviest snow (4+ inches) stays north but up to 4 is possible Wednesday night into Thursday. I also have a bit of concern that we have some sleet issues because arctic fronts VS subtropical jet is a breeding ground for COLD air undercutting the warm and a warm layer hangs on between 5-8k feet above the ground.

Extreme outcomes:

If we max our the snow potential, 6 or more inches is very possible. This will be a huge event over parts of KY, WV, TN and sw from there.

If we escape with a minor hit, literally nothing could fall.

Last week I felt very comfortable with my call all along  3-6 and it was very good. Here, I am much less certain and just trying to get the word out of the "possible" event. I'll FB/Tweet a few thoughts as the mid day models unfold as I have time during the work day and will have a full blog update IF needed to update where

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