It's been a while since a blog and honestly, I'm leaning towards event one (Friday Night and Saturday)NOT being a big deal for us. It's the classic case of so close, yet so far away. I think we get from between .75 to 1.25 inches of rain/junk falling out the sky saturday and 50% it's mainly rain, 25% we get enough snow to cover the ground and WAY at the bottom, 10% chance of 4+ inches of snow. (Not the WPC 10% chance either, for my weather enthusiasts)
Without getting to technical, where we need a HP to supply cold air, we have a low pressure. parts of NW Virginia and MAYBE the Mts to our west could survive this, but for Roaonke, Lynchburg and Danville LIKELY means MOSTLY rain. We've got 3 days to play this out, but I often say-- when is the last time in a storm we ended up colder than progged. Answer is--..A LONG WHILE.
Will update as needed, but strongly in the mainly rain for the Roanoke, Lynchburg and Danville areas. Areas above 2k feet and well to the north and west like Harrisonburg, etc may do well.
Event 2- Clipper type system is going to dig VERY deep Monday time frame. (Dig- how far south it goes with the upper air energy) In general, I like to see the energy at least at the VA/NC state line, if not down to -40 in Carolina. This vortmax is possible heading into GEORGIA. Funny, because it's not far off from making a heck of a low and there is a way we miss the storm as it moves south and then north up the coast. As of now, this may be our first chance to get decent snow of like 1-4 inches over much of the region.
Will update with some maps later for those who like more data.
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