If something does come of this-- it will be a million to one.
The model data has been all over the place. ( Putting aside that guidance showed between 2-3 inches of rain in Lynchburg with the storm Wednesday and Thursday and we got a meager .65 inches or so)-- there has been SOME event hinted at on the data for a week or so.
Some days, there has been NO storm, some days-- Models made a MAJOR storm.
Slowly, it seems there will be a storm.
Could it be SNOW??
Well, I don't usually blog that much over rain, so YES-- but I highly doubt it. Since this blog is often used to speculate I don't mind throwing this out there.
Basically, HP is sliding to an ideal spot for our location and a short wave consolidates at the about best time and fires up a decent event. The forcing is supplied from the closing off upper air low and a sinking cold front. If you've been reading me a while-- lift= precipitation.
Temps are very marginal and its still 3 days out.
My gut says we get a storm but its about 100 miles north of shown-- and temps are warmer. Waynesboro, Harrisonburg and those places may see a decent late season snow.
For the record-- some data I just checked out showed between .5 and 1.25 inches of liquid over our region with a decent path of 1-5 inches of snow in that. Temps are horrible the last 2k feet or so-- hence the lack of snow from all that precipitation. Ironically, the storm putters so slow because there isn't much of a jet stream speed wise as of now-- that it actually warms up aloft as the storm unfolds. So, if some places do see snow, it may end as rain.
As of now, anywhere below 2k feet-- expect rain. Those higher elevation places COULD get a get something-- rain switching to snow. We've got plenty of time to watch this event--
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