This isn't a sale, but were slashing temps from 80 to the LOW or mid 70's...

The warmth is on still-- 55-60 today, 60's tomorrow, 55-60 Tues/Weds a little warmer Thursday, and that point the heat cranks up. Aloft, the hottest day will be Friday-- where we are a +15c aloft or so (5k feet) That supports low 70's at the surface. A "cool front" approaches sometime late Friday and or Saturday and we cool aloft. With winds out of the west, the sinking air will supply some additional warmth so I'm not sure whether Friday or Saturday is our warmest day-- but 75 looks like the best bet as of now, rather than 80. 80 is NOT off the table at this time in Danville and Martinsville.

Seasonal snow totals--- VA Beach/ Norfolk with a commanding lead.

Outside the the highest mountain tops, where grandma's cabin is located, here are some seasonal snow totals.


Here are some major airport station seasonal totals through yesterday. ORF still leading the way.

21.4" Norfolk (ORF)
18.1" Blacksburg (RNK)
15.3" Wallops, Island (WAL)
12.1" Baltimore (BWI)
10.7" Richmond (RIC)
10.7" Danville (DAN)
9.6" Roanoke (ROA)
11.8" Washington, DC (IAD)
9.4" Washington, DC (DCA)
8.2" Lynchburg (LYH) 


There is no official data for Charlottesville, but a Co Op station has 7.7 inches of last check. Lynchburg in last outside this unofficial reporting. There is a good chance that Blacksburg finds a way to pass Norfolk, but I have doubts about the rest of the region.  First winter since 1988-89 that Norfolk had the "snow belt" title. 

80 degrees in February??

The much anticipated warm up is well in radar range. 50's tomorrow and MAYBE 60 Sunday-- will make for a welcome change from our 30's and 40's we've had since December. Looking through some data- if everything is right with the sun, the wind direction--- ect, we COULD hit 80 once next week! Best chances would be Danville and Martinsville but I certainly could see this happening in Lynchburg as well. 70's is a lock. 

The bar has been set at 80-- are you taking the over or the under??

Either winter is napping or winter is TKO for the year

Hope you enjoyed the dusting last night. I honestly thought we may squeeze an inch our when I was working up in Waynesboro and snow was falling at 5 PM-- Virga, snow falling in the clouds and evaporating before it reaches the ground killed our snow. Some places to our NW and SE had a coating to an inch. I had the equivalent of "pollen" coating on my car.

The warmth is coming-- 50's to maybe 60's starting Sunday-- no real signs of lasting cold through Feb 25th. Certainly, my heating bill is glad to hear this.

I'm planing some type of a write up on the 2000's snow decade in Lynchburg compared to Philly. Expect that in the next few days.

If we are "lucky" a dusting to an inch is possible

I've not updated simply because there wasn't much to talk about. The northern stream dominated and crushed our southern vort. It blows up to a big storm-- but WELL off shore(800 miles or so) Some energy and moisture will be awfully close so I won't be shocked if we get a few hours of snow flurries/showers that cover the ground SOME places. The odd thing is again-- I can see how the first band of snows actually go to our north and west-- and a second round misses to our south. Just one of those winters.

We get warmer late weekend and early next week--50's on Sunday and 60's Tuesday.

Does winter come back around??


Very possible, but I can't say 100% at this time. The mean troff will be our west for the next couple weeks. Normally, the best chances for snow are those located in the mean troff. Some indications are that the troff begins to slide east late month-- but is also retreating to the North in response to the south east ridge. If this happens, odds are we are mostly warm. This doesn't preclude a rouge could blast and a quick shot of some snow.

Will send a quick update by tomorrow AM--

Pulling the plug on the large event-- light snow still possible

All data has the northern stream data much too strong for this event and as a result the threat for any significant is basically gone. A coating of snow is still possible--- but not likely.

We do get nice and warm next week!

Shortest blog ever??

The Thursday storm has flatlined-- attempts to revive in process.

All noon data continues to drift away from the event-- and some data now says "what event". The northern energy is much more dominant and kills our southern energy as it heads east. The GFS is the "best" for snow model giving an inch or so while the GGEM/ECMWF basically have nothing.

Is this legit??

Very well could be. When I painted my possible solutions, one concern was keeping that southern vort strong and consolidated. The northern branch just beats it down and shreds it. We've had northern branch issues all year and there is no reason to consider they won't continue. This is very common in a La Nina winter.

If the evening data doesn't start to indicate a revival, I'm ready to pull the plug.