Snow still on the table, maybe even a second storm.

Quick update this AM:

1. Event 1, Saturday night into Sunday is still on the table. The storm trended south, as expected and is also weaker (For those wondering, it had 10-14 inches region wide a couple runs of the American model) The Euro model is weakest and most south.


A. Can't totally rule out the weakest, most southern track.
B. The big, 10-15 inch event was never really an option.
C. Light to moderate snows still on the table. Light to moderate, 1-3, 2-4, 3-6 type events. This is not a lock yet.


2. Trends are for a second event "maybe" Tuesday.  This could form just a smidge north and miss our region or be just a small event a blow up just to our northeast.

A. The Canandian Model is very agressive with this storm, give a NICE storm (but little Sunday)
B. Euro forms it but WAY north for us.
C.GFS is coming around to a small event Sunday and small/moderate event Tuesday.
D. Temps could be an issues with this, especially east of the Blue Ridge.

My thoughts: Even with the weaker solution, I think we see a slow shift north in this event Sunday. This won't be a "huge" but a decent event is possible, and a smaller event is likely.
Tuesday: 6 days out-- A lot can change, not too confident for our area yet. I like the areas north of Philly for event 2.

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Will continue updates on model runs at noon today.

Yes, the snow talk is legit..5 things you need to know about the weekend snow potential in Roanoke, Lynchburg, Danville and Blacksurg.

But, 5 days is a long ways away.

I try to communicate the uncertainty when I talk storms and explain what can go wrong, because things will go wrong. 5 days is forever and we are currently on the southern fringe of a storm. Usually, the north trend would seem huge and we'd already be telling you yeah, models says yes but the end results will be north of here.

There are occasions where storms trends south.. those usually have strong confluence and/or strong cold air advection. This one currently has both..

So- basically a storm slides to our north Friday and drags a cold front through. Cold air is still pushing in as the storm approaches form our west. The blocking/confluence forces the storm to our south (EG, near Nashville, to Charlotte then reforms off the NC coast) Yes, it's march, yes- we are having a very warm winter but our weather history is littered with storms that had very warm temps the day or three before the event.

So here are 5 key things to know!

1. 5 days out is a long time and things can and will change. Anyone who tells you "exactly" what will happen is just guessing.
2. There is reason to suspect there could be a further adjustment south which is great if you want snow because of confluence/north trends.
3. Beware of snow maps on FB, what your app says and anything old floating around. I've had someone tell me "it's supposed to be 50 saturday, my app just says rain, etc) Bloggers and really anyone with a computer can pull up the latest model data. There are legit trends that point towards a storm.
4. If there is an event, timing looks to be Saturday late into Sunday. Literally all types of precipitation are possible meaning snow, sleet, rain and freezing rain. All options are on the table-- from a mostly rain event to a mostly snow event. 2 runs of the GFS push the rain/snow line right up to 460 from Roanoke to Richmondand ring out a good bit of snow really fast.
5. Model data at this point comes in every 12 hours, except the American Model (GFS) which runs every 6 hours. Each run should help clarify what direction we are going in. And, Relax--it's a March storm. Even if we max out snow and get a nice event, roads are much easier to clear in March.

2 Cool maps/graphs...

1. This is a composite of matching patterns based on what the models show 5 days out. Our region averages out to a 6-8 inch snowfall.

2. A list of those analogs and explaining what events are popping up. 

So, those are the best matches at 300 mb for the upcoming event. A perfect score is a 1.. Some of the bigger events listed.
2/20/83-- 18 inches Roanoke, 15 Lynchburg.
2/15/03-- Big sleet storm. 3-7 inches region wide.
1987 1-25  18 inches Roanoke, 13 Lynchburg.
3/12/1993-- 30 NRV, 19 Roanoke, 15 Lynchburg.
1/20/2010--8-15 inches region wide.


So, point being we have some potential for some type of snowfall.
My thoughts match the analog map listed. I believe Winchester to Harrisonburg to Leesburg have the best shot for a 6+ inch event. Next area would be DC Metro down to CHO to Fredricksburg-- slightly less chance. The next bracket would include Roanoke, Lynchburg and Richmond. I think we see a shift south per the pattern but then the storm nudges north late, which always happens. Of course, all the midnight model runs could lose the event too :)

Will try to do a blog tomorrow evening and will tweet/post more during model runs. Feel free to share this and ask questions if you have them.

Winter Storm warning for much of the area...

We have decent model agreement at this time as the Euro and GFS moved north, the NAM isn't givin us 10 inches anymore and the canadian is the least snowiest.

While I am confidence that all areas see snow, some of the fring areas are on the line between 1-2 and 3-4 inches.

General ideas:
Danville to South Hill 6-9 inches.
Martinsville to Altavista to Charlotte Court House 4-8
NRV to Roanoke into Northern Amherst County- 2-4 inches (Not in the warning area either)
Campbell, Most of Bedford, City of Lynchburg  Appomattox-3-6

Concerns: The distance between 2 and 5 inches isn't much at all. I could easily see city of Lynchburg getting 2 inches and the Foodlion in Rustburg getting 5. 15 miles will make a huge diference and we stil have many models giving 2-3 inches and others give 6-8 in Lynchburg and 1-2 Roanoke or5-7 in Roanoke.



Positives: We have great conditions for snow growth, so ratios will be great. General rule of thumb is that 1 inch of liquid is 10 inches of snow.
This could end up at 15 to 1 so. Last night's euro gave Lynchburg .5 liquid, that would make 7.5 or so inches of snow.

My lock of the event: Everyone east of a line from Martinsville North to Moneta up near SML east to Altavista and Brookneal--Meets Winter storm criteria of 4 or more inches.

May the force be with everone north of that line. You'll see snow, but it's a fine line between 1-4-5 inches

Time: Some flurries possible late afternoon and evening, but the good stuff arrives midnight and later. Ends all areas by noon. NRV/Roanoke 8-9, Lynchburg 9-11 and points east by noon.

My guesses: Roanoke 3 Lynchburg 4.2 and Danville 8

According to 6z model runs, north trend is on...

Model comes in literally every hour when your near an event, but when you are more then a day out, the Canadian and Euro run every 12 hours. The GFS runs 4 times a day as does the NAM (Short term american model) . There were no major changes at midnight, but the 6z or off hour runs have started to turn north. Last night, most data showed an inch at best in our area.. here are some maps..GFS, and several versions of the NAM based on resolution.

Anyways, pushing 2-4 inches now in Lynchburg and 1-2 in Roanoke. The noon model runs will either support or back off. 

When your crystal ball ain't so crystal clear..

For my longtime readers, you guys know when I am confident, I have no problem throwing out ideas early.  This is not the case...so, my plea is to keep expectations low :)
Glossary terms for shorter posts: EC- European model, GFS- American- GEM- Canadian.

The bad..

1.GFS isn't close and doesn't give much near us . Tremendous storm for eastern NC.
2. The Canadian is now good on wave 1, east on wave 2. We get 2 inches total, most Thursday night in Friday.
3. NAM- American regional model is south still.


The "wow"

European model has been consistent 3 runs in a row with 3-5 inches region wide and was a stronger system where 7-10 inches wasn't that far away (50-70 miles)

The Euro ensembles look better too-- for the first time. Ensembles are the model run 51 times with small changes to weed out model biases.

My thoughts-- someone has to blink soon. The EC being a better model is almost like those sprint ads where they say Verizon is better, but only 1% better...so, my confidence isn't booming, yet.

Timing-- Thursday evening, Flurries to an inch.

Friday night and Saturday- Holding at 2-4 region wide, not a locked in forecast.

About this possible event..

First, wow my last blog was bad. I expected no updates. The models were very wrong about the pattern and cold will come, leave and then come back in the time I thought would be mild.

Thursday may be a mess. Sometimes the worst traffic events come from small amounts of snow.. a slim coating is possible but with colder temps in place roads could get bad fast. I'd rather drive in 5 inches of snow when everyone knows to be safe then just a little when people don't take as much caution.

The writing could be on the all for Saturday for a BIG ticket event.  The EURO and GEM have not had it for days and those ensembles are not great either.  The GFS was great to watch rolling in but I had a hunch it was off. Here is why...


Speed of the short wave..

Wave one on Thursday is on the arctic front. Most storms need about 3 days or space or so to amplify (simply version) and some features in the Pacific Northwest likely eject the second piece of energy about 18 -24 hours too quickly... while the GFS shows it holding west a little more. (Credit to David Reese, Met from Charlottesville for the graphics,)

Note the blue dot over Oregon

This is the EURO...no Blue Dot.  The energy has already moved east. 

So, in summary I think the euro may be right on timing and the low doesn't develop as fast because the timing issue with that. Still, it could provide another period of light snow Friday Night and Saturday, with maybe decent snows into Eastern NC. 

Will do a more quick status updates after the model runs tonight..Even a weaker strung out low could edge north as we get closer. At this time, Thursday may be the best bet to whiten the ground in our general area and travel may be horrible for a while.

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Looking at the Crystal Ball

First, I should have taken a few minutes to update the blog befor the litle bit of ice that fell. In some ways, that was the worst case scenario where just ..02 liquid fell at temps in the mid 20s..instant ice everywhere. I heard of 170 wrecks near Lynchburg,and I'm sure that was common accross the areas of Danville, Roanoke and Blacksburg too. We did have a region wide Freezing Rain Advisory in place..but people often to head , listen or no ice on their car from their garage and they don't really know.  Bad, dangerous situation.

Anyways,  I don't expect many any need to update the blog in the next month. It COULD happen, but it likely be a minor ice event. Long term pattern looks mild for our region without little threast of ice/cold before late January.

The pattern should/could change- starting mid January and impacting us by late month. However,I'm not totally sold on that yet.

SO, if you hate winter weather, no news will be good news. Once a pattern changes seems more likely, exect more posts about time frame and possible events.