The March 6 hype--

Social Media has made weather forecasting next to impossible. Just about everyone has an idea some of the data shows a potential big snow next week. Someone posts a map, people take it as gospel and chaos ensues.

Here is the skinny..

1. Pattern is ripe for a big storm, but has some flaws and issues.
2. We have decently cold air aloft, but the lack of High Pressure to our north to push in LOW LEVEL cold is an issue.
3. Model data spread is from suppressed in South Carolina to blowing up late and missing our region, but bringing a good event from DC north.
4. Timing is everything-- the exact strength of the blocking to our northeast and timing of the shortwaves will determine this event.

My guess at this point-


33% chance we see an accumulating snow. From that, 10% shot it's over 6 inches and 3% shot it's over a foot.

Key issue is how hard it snows. If we get 12-18 hours of light to moderate snow, we could get ..50 of liquid that only accumulates a slushy inch and is basically melted before the last flurry ends.

Trends last night-

If there were any trends last night, it was for a later phase which leaves us drier as the storm is disorganized before this point.

The key shortwave will be coming ashore later tonight over Western Canada-- that will help. I think by mid day tomorrow we should have a general idea of if this is a legit threat.

FWIW--


The HPC HAD an area of liquid in our region of between .5 and .75. After the model data last night they shifted that east and we are in a .25 to .5 for the period. Not that this is gospel, but it was a step back for our region and a step forward for places to our north and east.

Another interesting smaller event--

This winter-- UGG.

Larger events can be a challenge, but there is a sense of ease because you know what you have it's just the finer details of rain/snow and amounts. This year, we've had so many smaller events-- per example last Saturday's events where some of the model data hinted of a stronger band and sure enough it happened. (smaller then modeled, but that's expected because of model resolution)

Here, we've got a storm dying over the Midwest and some moisture pushing on the east side of this low SMACK DAB into very dry air. Dry air, that often just dries this stuff up. Next, we have second wave coming through late Friday into Saturday and cold air, just cold enough lingering around.

1. Don't fret temps-- this air is colder and drier than Monday's fiasco. Temps are near 40, but they will drop a degree or two and before precip starts and then tumble quickly down to near freezing, bottoming out in the upper 20's.

2. I'm still not sure where this is going.

Short term models have the heavier stuff going to our south-- closer to the NC/VA border with even maybe a quick 2-3 inches before it changes.

The GFS/ECMWF (Euro) are much drier and maybe give us .15  or so before noon tomorrow that starts as snow and ends as freezing drizzle.

The NAM which is ALWAYS too wet-- has almost 2 inches of snow in our region.

Meh--

I think that snow and sleet breaks out after midnight west and between 2-4 east. It may mix with sleet at first, kick to all snow and then transition back to sleet and then eventually freezing rain.

Amounts-- Coating to 2 inches snow and sleet. Best snow amounts NORTH of 460. (Closer to two inches)

Most schools and stuff cancelled tomorrow.

Snow through mid morning and sleet through 1 PM or so-- sooner the more South and West you go.

BTW, Blacksburg is on Facebook and here is their snow map.. I think their map is a bit cluttered, but conveys the general idea. You should follow them.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/rnk/emer/emer.php

The Parade of Minor Storms continues...

Another storm system will pass WELL to our west and with it bring a chance of sleet and freezing rain late tomorrow night and Friday AM.

This is a limited moisture event and should only provide a minor glaze if it all materializes. Most of model data does bring in the moisture but a few are VERY light in the order of a couple tenths of an inch. In most cases their will be an initial burst of sleet that is quickly over to light freezing rain.

Temps look to get near Freezing by mid morning Friday. The temps will hoover just above freezing all day and may dip below freezing for a time as another slug of moisture comes through late Friday night into Saturday morning. IF this is just a tad cooler than anticipated, it could be a more substantial ice event. I'm thinking we JUST miss it but some areas to the north and west of Lynchburg and Roanoke, above 2000 ft may get a good glaze out of this.

We are in a stormier, wetter pattern through the first 10 days of March. Early next week, we may be looking at another event that starts as snow and or ice and ends as rain and then the first 10 days of March may have a shot at a Nor Easter or two-- with some colder temps CLOSE.

Another minor event

A storm is passing WELL to our west in the upper Great Plains. With that, a warmer push of air is going to create some precipitation in our region and we should get a burst of snow and sleet towards daybreak. 

NWS has an advisory for west of the Blue Ridge-- lower regions expect 1-2 inches of snow and sleet and higher 1-3 with both places at risk for a glaze of ice. 

Lynchburg is not under an advisory yet, but the forecast map created in Blacksburg has us getting a coating to an inch...

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/rnk/emer/emer.php

Southside may avoid most of the snow and ice. 

Expect school delays in the AM>...

Saturday Storm wrap up--

Pretty intense local event-- the NAM was on to something with a stronger band, but it was more NORTH SOUTH vs SE to NW. Also, because of the limited scope of a model-- it was a more defined pause of either IN our OUT of the band.. no real tapering. Places in Appomattox had up to 8 inches. A friend reported close to 4 inches in Eastern Campbell county but said a 5 minute drive towards LYH went to NO snow. On the way home from the moster truck show there was NO snow until I got off on 460 BUSINESS west-- by the 7/11 and then the ground was covered. Once I passed Lowes on Timberlake, there was NO snow again. 

Strong storm-- just the upper air energy had not consolidated before it passed our region. It has become a MAJOR storm over the Northern Atlantic Ocean. 

Could be a snowy day in parts of our area??

Part one of the storm has come and gone with LITTLE rain. I know LYH airport officialy had a Trace of rain. At some point in the evening I had some drizzle, but it never amounted to much. Further, a friend shot me an overnight text and reported some light snow in the 2-3 AM time frame. (Yeah, people do those nice things for me because of this hobby)

Round two is getting fired up. 

Model review-

NAM- Has a strong band that pushes up from the SE to the NW somewhere between lets say Altavista and Amherst. In that band, a few inches fall. Outside of it, coating to an inch. The NAM is a short term model-- may have an edge here. 

GFS- has a general 1-2 inch snowfall from lets say LYH and DAN east. 

Super short term models RAP and HRRR. These update hourly.

RAP- really over emphasizes that big band and dumps up to 5 inches for those under it. Outside it, coating to an inch.Shows it much closer to LYH in the same general area. 

HRRR- Has a heavier area, but it's further east-- does NOT really get the greater LYH area. 

My thoughts-- I think Further east has the best shot of anything over an inch. LYH may see a coating. Roanoke maybe flurries. South Boston to Just west of Richmond may see 1-3

Will use Twitter and FB to update from here but I'm taking my boys to the Monster Truck show this afternoon, so I'll be cut off for a while. :) If it starts to snow good, flip on radar-- that may be your best bet. 

House of Cards.

This winter has been interesting with many events but all of them VERY small. Fragile house of cards on tap that could collapse either way.

Guess what-- he comes ANOTHER or two.

Today will be very mild as we have a cold front approaching, SW winds in front put us WELL into the 50's this afternoon. Temps will cool off quickly and a little impulse along the wave will induce some light rain that could end as a light snow. At best, we COULD see a coating out of this overnight.

From the odds makers- Tonight.

Basically dry 25%
A little rain ending as snow, if you don't see it you won't knot it happened. 65%
Coating to an inch of snow 15%


From there, a second piece of energy rotates through tomorrow and forms a low pressure NEAR the Outer Banks. This system is interesting in that the models are trying to developed some type of inverted trough. If this happens, we could see this but a coating or even a couple inches is possible. This will be a have or have nots where some places see 2-3 inches and others get nothing.

Odds for Saturday- which at this time FAVOR eastern regions.

1. A few flurries 40%
2. Coating to an inch, especially eastern parts 40%
3. 1-3 inches localized areas 20%

I'll update FB and twitter later today with ideas. If you want a coating, tomorrow looks much better.

Saturday Morning Coffee

Well, If you felt neglected during the recent bouts of small snow, sleet and cold-- my apologies. Sometimes it's hard to blog when we MAY get a half inch. Those parade of clippers did about what I expected here and that storm Thursday night wasn't a big deal in our region BUT Roanoke was the crush zone with 3-4 inches in the city and reports up to 5-6 just outside the city. I would not of been shocked with an inch or two but the end results were incredible.

Our Weather- 2 chances of snow in the next 8-9 days.

1. Valentines day- some of the models have pushed a storm towards us. With minimal cold air in place, I like this storm better for Harrisonburg north. The Euro is not on the storm yet, so by no means is this a lock.

2. Presidents Day weekend. Some data has signaled a shot at a larger storm. It's been harder to get a larger winter type storm with winter so I'm not locking this in, but the potential exists. This is a better set up then valentines day.


Pic of the day-

If you watched any of the storm coverage last night-- an incredible band of snow crashed ashore over long island and CT. Reports of 7 inches plus in an hour.

I've taken pics before in 3 inches an hour. The light makes it look different and it was NOTHING close to this.