Warm the first couple days, then cold leftovers.
Thanksgiving and Black Friday will be NICE days-- 60 or so most areas, give or take a few degrees, MAYBE 65 on Friday.
Strong cold front passes late Friday evening and we DRASTICALLY cool off Saturday. 40-45 for a high will be the norm with some upslope snows in the Mountains for those travelling west and north.
November will end up colder than normal-- we are running a -4 in LYH and w couple warmer days won't shave much off and then we go back into the "cooler".
What does the crystal ball say about December?
Cold air has been building up in Canada nicely. I often blog about high latitude blocking. We've had SOME blocking, but not a ton in November and we are WELL below normal. There are SOME signs of some blocking developing, some could be strong. The issue is WHERE the block sets up. A key issue in my outlook talked about the problems with the pacific and regarding the pdo and how that COULD lead to less blocking out west. In this case, if we don't get that blocking the strongest of the cold will be in the mid west and then into the NORTHEAST up near Boston and that region.
However, whenever there is arctic air in the northern tier, all we need is a day or so of the a trigger to pull down colder air and a properly timed storm. Those TEND to be more ice events, so we are on the lookout. The first 15 days or so of December have potential for cold, snow and ice, but this is not a lock.
Ironically, the stratosphere has NOT been favorable for cold up to this point. So, if we get a cold period without cooperation and then a boost later on, we COULD be looking at a pretty harsh winter. (Conjecture, not a forecast)
Hope all enjoy a great Thanksgiving- 2012 has been a great year for me and hope the same for you and your friends and family.
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Sunday, November 11, 2012
Winter Forecast 12-13
Well, well , well--
For a time, it seemed the winter outlook would fall on the easy side of things with a close to moderate el nino . Those for winters have pretty strong correlation to cold and snow, at least relative to our norms. The Nino faded and now we are left making strong judgement calls to what this winter holds.
Winter outlook for Lynchburg, Roanoke, Danville, Blacksburg Virginia-
Quick thoughts.
1. Won't be as mild as last winter.
2. Won't be as snowy as 09-10.
3. Should be a tad drier than normal
Quick view.
Winter temp average 1-2f colder than normal.
Precipitation 15% below normal
Snowfall- Take your local and subtract 5. Your range will be in that 5.
Example- Lynchburg is listed as 18 inches - so 13-18 inches. Roanoke is 21 so lets go 16-21 for the winter.
Monthly break down temp wise--
December - 1
January +2
February -3.
Thought process
(Google these indices or email me a question)
Losing the El Nino hurt-- as that seems to usually trump other global patterns. This will be a neutral warm el nino, meaning it's not a nino, but temps are above normal in that region.
QBO- Has been very negative and should begin to move towards positive. This should allow for some blocking towards the North Pole.
PDO- Negative to very negative. This isn't a good sign for cold and snow, especially south of the mason dixon line. Oddly, when the trend is negative, but spikes positive for the winter they trend to be snowier. This will NOT be the case.
Long range model- Both the CFSv2 and ECMWF have been all over the place, but both don't see VERY cold winters.
SOI- Index that measures pressures in Darwin and Tahiti- More La Nina like, than El Nino.
Snow cover- snow cover in Eurasia has been demonstrated to be a harbinger of the Arctic oscillation, where as when the snow cover advances rapidly, the chain of events leads to more blocking at the pole. This year was THIRD on the list behind 09-10 and 1976-77, both that had TREMENDOUS cold snaps. The biggest difference in those two was the EL Nino in 09-10 leading to all the snow cover. I weighted this the most.
The biggest issue with snowfall will NOT be cold, but lack of a sub tropical jet. My guess is 4-5 days out systems may look to have potential but unless we have strong blocking, these will end up being events NORTH of DC-- or we get much less than modeled due to downsloping, etc. (Especially east of the Blue Ridge) I can see several events where we get 2-4 inches of snow with the nice glaze of sleet and freezing rain on top.
For a time, it seemed the winter outlook would fall on the easy side of things with a close to moderate el nino . Those for winters have pretty strong correlation to cold and snow, at least relative to our norms. The Nino faded and now we are left making strong judgement calls to what this winter holds.
Winter outlook for Lynchburg, Roanoke, Danville, Blacksburg Virginia-
Quick thoughts.
1. Won't be as mild as last winter.
2. Won't be as snowy as 09-10.
3. Should be a tad drier than normal
Quick view.
Winter temp average 1-2f colder than normal.
Precipitation 15% below normal
Snowfall- Take your local and subtract 5. Your range will be in that 5.
Example- Lynchburg is listed as 18 inches - so 13-18 inches. Roanoke is 21 so lets go 16-21 for the winter.
Monthly break down temp wise--
December - 1
January +2
February -3.
Thought process
(Google these indices or email me a question)
Losing the El Nino hurt-- as that seems to usually trump other global patterns. This will be a neutral warm el nino, meaning it's not a nino, but temps are above normal in that region.
QBO- Has been very negative and should begin to move towards positive. This should allow for some blocking towards the North Pole.
PDO- Negative to very negative. This isn't a good sign for cold and snow, especially south of the mason dixon line. Oddly, when the trend is negative, but spikes positive for the winter they trend to be snowier. This will NOT be the case.
Long range model- Both the CFSv2 and ECMWF have been all over the place, but both don't see VERY cold winters.
SOI- Index that measures pressures in Darwin and Tahiti- More La Nina like, than El Nino.
Snow cover- snow cover in Eurasia has been demonstrated to be a harbinger of the Arctic oscillation, where as when the snow cover advances rapidly, the chain of events leads to more blocking at the pole. This year was THIRD on the list behind 09-10 and 1976-77, both that had TREMENDOUS cold snaps. The biggest difference in those two was the EL Nino in 09-10 leading to all the snow cover. I weighted this the most.
The biggest issue with snowfall will NOT be cold, but lack of a sub tropical jet. My guess is 4-5 days out systems may look to have potential but unless we have strong blocking, these will end up being events NORTH of DC-- or we get much less than modeled due to downsloping, etc. (Especially east of the Blue Ridge) I can see several events where we get 2-4 inches of snow with the nice glaze of sleet and freezing rain on top.
Monday, November 5, 2012
So close, yet so far away.
Due to time constraints ( due to a new puppy) I won't post TOO many maps.
Most guidance is WELL to our east with the storm, but the reigning champ, the ECMWF pulls Sandy CLOSE enough the a little light rain and snow back into Lynchburg while Farmville, Charlottsville, Harrisonburg and even Amherst get a decent mid fall snow. Rare, but not unheard of. (See Nov 1953 and Nov 1968)
ECMWF phases the two vorts sooner and the the storm is closer and more negative tilt. Here is a shot of it as the snow/rain has BARELY scraped LYH. If something CLOSE to this happens, will be a dicey forecast for our region. I'll assume this is more right then wrong, but give the other models 25% weight and move everything 50 miles Northeast at this time.
Temps are BARELY below freezing and a couple degrees either way could make a huge difference.
Most guidance is WELL to our east with the storm, but the reigning champ, the ECMWF pulls Sandy CLOSE enough the a little light rain and snow back into Lynchburg while Farmville, Charlottsville, Harrisonburg and even Amherst get a decent mid fall snow. Rare, but not unheard of. (See Nov 1953 and Nov 1968)
ECMWF phases the two vorts sooner and the the storm is closer and more negative tilt. Here is a shot of it as the snow/rain has BARELY scraped LYH. If something CLOSE to this happens, will be a dicey forecast for our region. I'll assume this is more right then wrong, but give the other models 25% weight and move everything 50 miles Northeast at this time.
Temps are BARELY below freezing and a couple degrees either way could make a huge difference.
Sunday, November 4, 2012
The Mid Week NorEaster!
I almost long for the days when I was breaking events 5-6 days out before the media. Social media and just the net in general have quickly added to the avenues people can find medium range thoughts and speculation.
Sandy was nothing short of a spectacular event with catastrophic results, especially in the Northern Jersey/NYC area. Despite the quick "labeled" transition to extra tropical the system had a HUGE storm surge and like a landfalling tropical system, strongest winds on the north side. I LOVE interesting weather events, but seeing that level of human suffering his just horrific. Having numerous friends in the region and chatting on FB makes it interesting.
Perhaps I owed my loyal readers a quick update about this event. I was on the fence with some models far enough west for a couple days to bring meaningful precipitation back into our region. The models have trended a little east and the best precipitation slides basically Charlottesville/Famville east.
Do I think that's accurate? As of now-- Yes. I don't think we need will see much rain (or snow) from this event. Best chance for snow will be north well north of Harrisonburg from Winchester up 81 to NY. And, honestly maybe even NOT into VA.
Can this change? sure-- weather forecasting is always fluid. We need a faster phasing of the jet to slide this thing west AND it to BOMB further south, lets say as it passes Cape Hatteras. I'll update quickly in the AM when I see the overnight data.
My winter outlook will be out later this week. Sean Sublette had a nice one for WSET.
http://www.wset.com/video?clipId=7883542&autostart=true
I like his thought process
Allen Huffman is an excellent met from NC State-
http://www.examiner.com/article/winter-2012-13-forecast-part-1
http://www.examiner.com/article/winter-2012-13-forecast-part-2
Hope to get my final thoughts by Friday.
Sandy was nothing short of a spectacular event with catastrophic results, especially in the Northern Jersey/NYC area. Despite the quick "labeled" transition to extra tropical the system had a HUGE storm surge and like a landfalling tropical system, strongest winds on the north side. I LOVE interesting weather events, but seeing that level of human suffering his just horrific. Having numerous friends in the region and chatting on FB makes it interesting.
Perhaps I owed my loyal readers a quick update about this event. I was on the fence with some models far enough west for a couple days to bring meaningful precipitation back into our region. The models have trended a little east and the best precipitation slides basically Charlottesville/Famville east.
Do I think that's accurate? As of now-- Yes. I don't think we need will see much rain (or snow) from this event. Best chance for snow will be north well north of Harrisonburg from Winchester up 81 to NY. And, honestly maybe even NOT into VA.
Can this change? sure-- weather forecasting is always fluid. We need a faster phasing of the jet to slide this thing west AND it to BOMB further south, lets say as it passes Cape Hatteras. I'll update quickly in the AM when I see the overnight data.
My winter outlook will be out later this week. Sean Sublette had a nice one for WSET.
http://www.wset.com/video?clipId=7883542&autostart=true
I like his thought process
Allen Huffman is an excellent met from NC State-
http://www.examiner.com/article/winter-2012-13-forecast-part-1
http://www.examiner.com/article/winter-2012-13-forecast-part-2
Hope to get my final thoughts by Friday.
Monday, October 29, 2012
Landfall- Atlantic city.
Well, well, well--
Leg one of my landfall at Atlantic City has verified well- Needing a Philly to just north of Hagerstown and we've won the triathlon.
Crazy storm reports-- Winds on the north side of the storm WELL over Hurricane force gusts-- verified at 94, a few unverified reports OVER 100 in the NYC,Long Island area.
Crazy rains from New Jersey SW to DC area. 5-8 inches common with more on the way. Coastal regions have had historic flooding, beach erosion and much of NYC proper has MAJOR water issues.
My plan was to head up to Lewisburg WV tonight to see some snow, but I've got a recovering sick child. He's better, but needed daddy for the evening. Much of WV looks to be demolished overnight with a verified 8 inch total from a friend in Summerville, WV
For the bulk of our region- occasional light to maybe moderate rain continues. Winds will pick up with gusts over 60 in the Mts and 50 elsewhere. I don't think we see MUCH rain.. under a half inch near LYH and under a quarter inch Danville, Martinsville and Roanoke. These are hedged HI-- I think LESS rain.
IF, IF , IF we can get heavier bands in the region after 2 AM-- it will be mixed with snow. My doubts are we DON'T get heavier bands in.
Snow map on short term model-- sees 2 feet by noon tomorrow MUCH of WV.
Leg one of my landfall at Atlantic City has verified well- Needing a Philly to just north of Hagerstown and we've won the triathlon.
Crazy storm reports-- Winds on the north side of the storm WELL over Hurricane force gusts-- verified at 94, a few unverified reports OVER 100 in the NYC,Long Island area.
Crazy rains from New Jersey SW to DC area. 5-8 inches common with more on the way. Coastal regions have had historic flooding, beach erosion and much of NYC proper has MAJOR water issues.
My plan was to head up to Lewisburg WV tonight to see some snow, but I've got a recovering sick child. He's better, but needed daddy for the evening. Much of WV looks to be demolished overnight with a verified 8 inch total from a friend in Summerville, WV
For the bulk of our region- occasional light to maybe moderate rain continues. Winds will pick up with gusts over 60 in the Mts and 50 elsewhere. I don't think we see MUCH rain.. under a half inch near LYH and under a quarter inch Danville, Martinsville and Roanoke. These are hedged HI-- I think LESS rain.
IF, IF , IF we can get heavier bands in the region after 2 AM-- it will be mixed with snow. My doubts are we DON'T get heavier bands in.
Snow map on short term model-- sees 2 feet by noon tomorrow MUCH of WV.
Here is the Lynchburg profile at 6 am-- I highlighted the last three layers, or about 1500 feet of the atmosphere that's above freezing. However, it's only a few degrees, like 36-37 so if it comes down hard we COULD hoover around around 33 with some snow. My hunch is the rain stays BARELY east of us and once it cools we are basically dry.
Near miss with moisture and temps... don't be shocked to see a few flurries.
Batten Down the Hatches.
SuperStorm Monday...
Sandy has done pretty much as expected-- she swung out east to near 70 longitude and is not making the shift west. My thoughts were Atlantic City to near Philly to near Hagerstown, MD.
That's going to be rather close-and she's gotten stronger with pressure down to 942 MB.
We've had light to moderate rain region wide over night and the snow change has been sooner than anticipated with snowfall into Blackburg and Hot Springs already.
Rain region wide today with temps steady or even falling slowly. Winds should be increasing as the day goes on.
I'll update with some model data at noon. With the snow change earlier, will have the evaluate. If you look at this radar look..
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=FCX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
snow in the mountains and MAYBE already west of Martinsville.
Sandy has done pretty much as expected-- she swung out east to near 70 longitude and is not making the shift west. My thoughts were Atlantic City to near Philly to near Hagerstown, MD.
That's going to be rather close-and she's gotten stronger with pressure down to 942 MB.
We've had light to moderate rain region wide over night and the snow change has been sooner than anticipated with snowfall into Blackburg and Hot Springs already.
Rain region wide today with temps steady or even falling slowly. Winds should be increasing as the day goes on.
I'll update with some model data at noon. With the snow change earlier, will have the evaluate. If you look at this radar look..
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=FCX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
snow in the mountains and MAYBE already west of Martinsville.
Saturday, October 27, 2012
Stay on Target....
I see no drastic changes to any forecast you are going to see out there. The bottom line is-- does it land in the Delmarva OR some where in New Jersey.
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I've posted a few times on Facebook that I see a landfall of Sandy near Atlantic City--moving to Philly and then sitting just north of Hagerstown. This doesn't meant THOSE areas will get the worst. More like 125 miles to the SOUTH of the landfall point and upwards of 250 miles NORTH will get big rains and strong and long duration tropical storm winds. Outside the immediate coast of DE and NJ, I don't think there will be "Hurricane Force" winds very far inland. (like as in a few miles) However, Billions of damage via erosion on the coast and down trees, power outages, etc will extend far and away from the "landfall" point. Pretty dangerous anywhere along the coast for flooding and winds.
Sandy actually had a good bit of weakening last night and was down graded to a tropical storm. She's looking better and back up to a Hurricane. I can see it peaking at a cat two before the slingshot to the west as she approaches the coast.
For the Lynchburg-Roanoke area specifically.
For our area- we'll have some lighter showers tomorrow into Monday and heavier rains will begin to move in from the NW and E. Don't be shocked if SOME areas-- don't see much rain, especially West of Lynchburg west to Roanoke and Martinsville.
Winds- Highest elevations will see the worst with gusts over 50, where the west of the world lives will be a duration of 20-30 miles with gusts to 40.
Snow- EPIC event for the MTS of West Virginia. Still very up in the air where some models pull the storm so far W that Garret County actually changes back to rain on a WARM FRONT out the NE while lewisburg and Beckley areas get 12+ inches of snow. If it takes the PERFECT tract-- Don't be shocked for a remote place like Snowshoe or Davis to get 3-4 feet.
Where people live like Lynchburg-- We can see some snow showers or flurries Late Monday night and Tuesday. I don't expect any risk of accumulations, but knowing we got a few flakes off a hurricane would be pretty cool. With a VERY cold pool of air aloft, we could get a decent little burst of snow SOMEWHERE east of the Mountains Tuesday. (Decent for October, NOT accumulating)
My PERSONAL plan is to work Monday and then shoot up to Lewisberg WV Monday night-- My office is in Roanoke right off 220 and it's 75 miles. Only about 20 of those miles would be snow covered getting back Tuesday morning.
One crazy snow map-- 19+ inches most of WV and some of the snow sneaks east of the mts. ( Don't be shocked if some place gets a coating to a slopping inch or two Tuesday.
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