Saturday, February 29, 2020

This will likely be Lynchburg's first snowless winter in recorded history- Bad data lead to a 1996-97 report of snowless winter.

George Flickinger is a really good met. I keep score on my forecast vs the locals and George is doing well vs Me. Kicking my butt this year because the 2 events I thought we'd see an inch or so were wrong by me and more correct or spot on by George.

George reported earlier in the week that 1996-1997 was a snowless winter in Lynchburg. This wasn't his fault as he pulled data from the NWS website.

Here is the full story: LYH had a small NWS office here until consolidation took place in the mid 90's. All the offices were folded into the wider regional offices that we currently have. This lead to roughly some point in 1996 until 2003 have spotty data for snowstorm reporting. Weird in that there was no official measuring spot but data has just popped in there from some of the years. They missed 1996-1997 totally.

So, for those who don't know VirginiaWx (Keith Huffman) is a LPC (Licensed Professional Counselor) who also studied meteorology on his own plus  perused a degree a degree in meteorology for a while but did not finish. Crazy in that I 100% love each field. My counseling career has focused on child and family work and while I love meteo-- snowstorms are my favorite. Any "event" is really exciting to me.

The weather passion has always been there. My dad (Who was a weather enthusiast) as a child is blinded from an explosion in Vietnam. He still loved weather and as a blind person used the old NWS phone numbers and wx radios to track storms with me as a kid and we had it down to science of what network showed their weather. (This was up in the Philly Area for those wondering)  My Dad was funny in that because he was blind he had to walk outside and put his face towards the sky to "feel" the snow on his face. We starting following weather together as early as 1978 (Blizzard of 78) and by the time I was a 4th grader- we had no rules for bedtime when snow was approaching. He'd wake me up to tell me what was on the way or I'd be up at 4 am waiting for the updated forecast that scrolled across the cable access channel.

From that, I could literally name every time it snowed from about age 8 or 9 until the mid 90's when moved to Lynchburg for graduate school. I can still name all the big storms but the random 2-3 inchers did get a little more challenging.  I could name every good storm we had in Lynchburg since 1996 with a few gaps in small events under 4 inches but could get the "vicinity" time wise. Memory is just a strength of mine and I have weird catalogs of sports data, world and us history, weather events and will remember people's life stories like it's nothing. The counseling aspect came from just getting a kick out of hearing people's stories and then figuring out their idiosyncrasies.

I did this from memory on WSET Wx page-  but here is what I recall about that winter with odd details.

Storm 1 Was December 5th. They called for rain but the temp hoovered around 32 all day. Snow broke out around 5 or so and after an inch or so where I lived on Wards Ferry Road, changed to rain. Just north and west of town had 3 to 5. There was even a difference between Wards Road and Forest because I worked the next day at Stanley Steemer  and worked in Forest where the roads where snow covered.

Storm 2 Was January 9th 1997. I remember first hearing about the potential on Tuesday January 7th as I was off work and school had not started yet. Taking a long drive up towards Natural Bridge, I had my weather radio and the storm was explained. By Wednesday there was a Winter Storm warning most of the area. Lynchburg west was 3-6 inches with 1-3 for Appomattox south and east. Snow started over night and then changed to sleet and freezing rain mid to late morning. I recall the sleet lasted longer then anticipated because about 3pm I remember seeing it bounce off the trashcans. We had about 3 inches total.

There was a trace of snow on January 11th from a strong arctic front. I saw Legends of the Fall that night at the old Dollar movies in Candlers station.

Storm 3 was February Feb 8th 1997 and was about 5 inches. It was supposed to be all snow until late evening on the 7th "May start as rain" was added. Temp was about 37 when it started as rain and changed to snow in about an hour. I actually was hoping to have off that day (Saturday) at Stanley Steemer but we worked despite the snow. We (Wayne and I ) drove out to Appomattox where it was snow then down to Red House/Brookneal. Somewhere between those 2 areas the snow changed to rain and it was a pretty stable line. We drove into the rain for a house then drove past and it changed at about the exact same house. Snow lasted till late afternoon and there was a final burst of snow  in the last hour that pushed totals to about 5 inches. I recall playing my weather radio that even cited Lynchburg, Heavy snow at 4pm.

Storm 4 was Valentines day into the 15th that was those storms that keep getting "cut back"- 4-6, then 2-4 then 1-3 before rain. I hate those storms so I don't remember the exact total but I think under an inch that started late afternoon.

George has agreed to research this data. Funny thing is I've cited these issue before and been told I was wrong by MANY mets on social media. Some have heard me and acknowledged the data gap. The same issue exists for Danville but I don't know their storm totals for their events in the gap period.

I'd be glad to help fill in the gaps but not sure if my offer would fall on deaf years. Historically, Lynchburg averages  about 17 inches of snow. Despite a decent decade for big storms, we've not had many "BIG winters" so the last 10 years average is about 16 inches last I checked.