Possible wintry event next weekend..

Well, November ended up 3-4 degrees colder than normal and December is continued the trend of frequent bouts of COLD air. 

We should have a respite for a few days with some seasonable days early in the week and then a few MILD days with temps reaching the 60's later this week. 

FROM THERE...

All week an arctic front will be slowing moving east, reaching our area sometime late Friday to sometime Saturday. This air as modeled is VERY cold. 

We have a unique set up with a strong -EPO ( blocking up west of Alaska that is currently pushed north near the Arctic Circle, pushing COLD air to our side of the globe) So, despite other things we need-- +PNA, -AO and -NAO the cold air keeps heading to our area. 

As the front passes our region, it slows down thanks to the SE ridge. Flow aloft turns to the SW and we get what's called "over running".  This will set the table for a possible major to significant snow and ice event. 

How much and When??

Hard to say EXACTLY at this point. 

Some key factors--

1. Strength of cold air both aloft (snow vs sleet and freezing rain) and surface (rain vs freezing rain) Cold air is often under modeled at the lowest levels in arctic outbreak, but sometimes overdone at the mid levels. 

2. Where does the cold front slow down-- Southern VA, Southern NC. SC?? This would tell the difference between more snow and less ice.

3. How much moisture transports into our region? AKA--how much stuff falls out the sky. 

First Thoughts:

I'm fairly confident we see some type of an event next weekend.  I'd guess a period of snow gives way to sleet and then eventually freezing rain. The big story will be figuring how much is sleet and how much is freezing rain. This won't be like that event last week with 3 day old stale and exiting cold air. This will be fresh cold air, maxing out during the event with MORE cold air pumping into the storm.  

Under this set up-- a typical event like this would be a Coating to maybe 2-3 inches of snow and sleet followed by some freezing rain with possible significant ice accumulation. We have a ton of factors in limbo that we don't know yet, but this is a "typical" outcome we'd see. More snow and sleet NW of Lynchburg and Roanoke, more freezing rain south and east of the area. 

Updates will be more frequent with this pending event. Lot's of Christmas events including my daughters FDA Christmas show next weekend AND the Lynchburg Christmas parade Sunday.