Big battle underway for this event between a HUGE SE Ridge (Ridge=heat) Between Thursday and Friday we should hit 70, with nearby cities like Raleigh hitting 80 possible. (that's record heat down there)
Ridiculous arctic front comes through and the exact details are a bit mushy but we know it will precipitate and some layers of the atmosphere will be below freezing. The one change is my Coating to 3 inches may be generous for LYH and ROA, as it's trending more towards a more mostly if not all freezing rain event.
One model, the CMC or Canadian model is colder and has a longer period of sleet and a little snow. The rest are mostly freezing rain. The rest may and should have a burst of sleet. (Common when dry air is in place to moisten the atmosphere) and mostly freezing rain. I still think Lynchburg and Roanoke temps bottom out in the upper 20's and Danville to Richmond closer to 30 or maybe just 32.
Total precipitation will be between .5 and an inch.. and if it is just a slow, steady freezing rain-- that's the best way to get ice build up.
One thing to look for is as we get close, do the models trend colder from the arctic air density OR is it just because the cold air damming isn't established enough to really push the cold air down to our region. (West of the Mountains will warm nicely and have rain, it's east where the cold air is trapped because it's heavier and more dense)
Look at this dry air at 700 mb Sunday AM on the NAM-- that's 40 dewpoint. This model extrapolated our would have a decent sleet burst.
More updates on FB and twitter and full blog later.
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