Cold is coming is a lock-- snow is POSSIBLE.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all--

Dusting off the weather blog to do some updates.

December has been an active month with a few "winter type storms"..

Temps have been what I expected, slightly above normal. We are running a +3 on the month, but 2 days have bumped that up where the lows were in the MID 50's-60 ish rather than mid 30s or so. We'd be in my 1-2 range I thought if not. We should end up between 2-3+ for the month.

It has been much more stormy than I had anticipated. We should be 3-4 inches above normal precipitation wise by months end with the rain coming tomorrow.

More cold air is heading our way.

1. One model shows a round of snow Monday night into Tuesday AM-- this is ONLY the NAM and it usually stinks in this range. It be coating to a couple inches. There is some energy on the backside of a cold front that causes this. Not buying this-- but it's on the "watch" list.

2. Some VERY cold air comes in New Years Day-- highs in the 20's a couple days.

3. A stronger piece of energy comes in Jan 2-3. Models have been all over the place, but something called the ensembles have slowly agreed on a more southerly track that keeps the cold air in place (It's been an issue with no blocking to the north to hold our cold air in place.

The air is VERY cold and as modeled now, it's not a super wet storm with modeled precipitation being near .5 to .6 of an inch. However, with it being very cold aloft, snow rations could be more like 15-1 so .5 could be 7-8 inches.

Key issues will be how strong the upper air energy is and can we keep the cold air in place, but not TOO strong to suppress the storm to our south.


This is MUCH higher on my list than the Monday night event. :) Will update as needed...