This has literally been the most boring winter ever-- at this point outside the mountains we have no Winter Storm Watches, ONE Freezing Rain Advisory that never materialized and on that should have been expanded into Lynchburg. That's it.
There's been an event on the models for several days, and the pattern has looked good for a week or so. I've not blogged, honestly because it's been such a bad winter-- ehh, I'm rusty.
I'll do a more complete update but here is a brief overview-
Energy in the SW states slides east and interacts with some energy diving south out of the Pacific north west. Not a SUPER strong storm, but it will be a very wet system with a good tropical connection. Regardless of track, I think most of our CWA (forecasting area covered from the NWS Blacksburg office) will see a .75 to 1.25 liquid event. The issue will be timing of the cold air to how much we snow falls.
As of now, I think most of the region starts as rain, but changes to snow before ending. How quickly is the key point. Models have trended colder and wetter, but that doesn't mean that will continue. I'd target Charlottesville west towards Lexington as the higher risk areas of getting a "winter storm warning" type snow (4-5 inches). Much is up in the air still..
I'm a bit under the weather and have an early conference call-- Full update later this evening.
No comments:
Post a Comment