Is it Raining, Is it Snowing, is a Hurricane-a-Blowing??

Yes! The danger must be growing, for the rowers keep on rowing!!!- Willie Wonka

Challenging forecast on deck--

Literally ALL of the model data has shifted south in the last 24 hours. That's a colder and snowier solution for those of you paying attention at home. The short and sweet version is a piece of energy out runs the storm forces cold air towards us. Associated with that cold air is a stronger jet. This stronger jet also beats the storm up pretty good with a strong jet that comes along with the cold air. 

Further complicating this is the potential for a severe weather outbreak. If the thunderstorms develop, which there is moderate risk, if the orientation isn't right it can reduce moisture influx, at least for a while. 

With so many moving parts, it will be hard to nail down a forecast-- but I do believe we break the shut out of snow this winter in Lynchburg proper. 

The Breakdown- Saturday will make you question whether it will even be able to snow as temps will be over 50. Clouds roll in late and temps fall over night to the upper 30's as rain starts. I think it quickly mixes with snow and sleet, and flips to mainly snow by noon for Blacksburg to Lynchburg. Snow could fall heavy at times for a while and ends late in the evening Sunday. (Lighter snow after 5 PM)

The storm has tended to slow down on the model data and that's a good thing. With that, systems often run faster then modeled. This could be an issue with timing of the cold air-- it's my experience that even if the storm runs faster, doesn't mean the the cold air will be faster. However, we will have tremendous forcing aloft  with the cold air pushing down from the south, strong sub tropical jet to the north-- this creates lift and lift cools the air. 

My map- disclaimer. I focuse mainly on Central and SW VA-- the father away you get, the less I know about your micro climate. If your in grandma's cabin in WV, I've not studied your area in depth. 

My call as of now!

With a ton of variability this is not my final call. With that, if the WARMER solution happens, I'd subtract 2 inches in the green and blue zones and ADD some to the magenta. Anything outside of the blue would end as snow, but just a coating to an inch. 

if the Colder solution verifies, very possible to add 2 inches in the green, blue and yellow zones.