Things seem on track for a nice winter event. I specifically wore short sleeves to my my sons basketball game to soak it all in. Overall, model data has held fast. I'd say that we are on tap for a liquid event of .6 to .9 along the 460 corridor from Blacksburg right into Richmond. Precipitation will be MAINLY snow, but the fist 1-2 hours could have some sleet and rain mixed in. Also, I expect a late afternoon early evening lull that could have some sleet and or freezing drizzle falling. Outside of that, mainly snow. Even Danville should do a little better snow wise.

I expect a strong push of mix changing to snow, and a lull later, followed by colder temps and a second push of heavy snow due to the approaching vort going to our south. That could produce some heavy snow rates Sunday evening. Timing wise, the slow down has been about perfect for our region if you wanted a good snow. 

What could go wrong?

I have some concerns about the total precipt that the one vort circled earlier that could crush our wave enough to pull us down to a half inch or so of liquid. Also, while I'm not really worried about temps, that's always got to be a thought if we mix more then I anticipate. 

What about the warm ground?

 Over rated, over rated, and over rated. If it was marginal cold aloft falling to temps at the surface of 33, I'd have concerns. Yeah, it's not going to lay on the road fast-- but grass, cars, benches decks will have accumulations fast. When the "lull" I talked about, you may settle and lose some depth-- let's say you have three inches at the end of round 1, it may condense to 2.5 inches and you get another 4 on the back side. You had 7 inches fall still. With that, temps are very cold-- just above the surface we will have temps at .-5 c at times. It's not going to be a "wet" snow other then the surface temps won't be bitter. I can even see the evening action being almost powder like. Citing examples-- 09, 05, 01 all had events where the temps were well into the 50's the day before. Feb 22 01 I played basketball in shorts and we had a 2-4 inch storm the next day. The bulk came in 2-3 hours in the morning and when it slowed, that snow did NOT melt. 

Start times- Far SW around Sunrise-- 10-11 am in LYH. End time? 10 PM far SW, 2 AM East of LYH.  

Some mixing and just a tad warmer overall keeps Martinsville to Danville and over to South Boston a little low. Now, when that second piece of energy dives in, they may catch up well. 

As for my map, the bulk of my focus is the Blacksburg Warning area. If you're outside that region, shoot me a message and I can look up more specifics in your region. I also didn't do much for NC-- there is some uncertainly everywhere, include those from 40 up to the NC/VA state line. Second wave could cash them in with a decent event. 

My thinking as of now. May have to massage a little here or there, but I like how this looks. 

Final call