Don't call it a comeback--

The pattern change we have speculated on is coming-- no longer speculation. If the pattern change had NOT developed as speculated, winter would be about flat lined. Instead, it's like the OLD wrestling days of Hulk Hogan in a sleeper hold and as the ref would pick his hand up and drop it once, twice and just as the third drop would be the final blow, his hand would shoot up and he'd garner the strength to break the sleeper, big boot to the face and he's the winner (again)


I often throw out many "initials" and assume that if my readers want to know more the will use google. The Arctic Oscillation, AO which had been very positive is very low at this time -4 today, which is bodes well. The MJO-- which is moving from phase towards phase 7 is good as phases 7-3 tend to be cold and stormy in the east. The NAO is close to neutral which means it's not helping, but could be worse. The AO and NAO have about a .8 correlation or so, so the NAO may start to slide negative.

For the record, I was rather skeptical about this change and still skeptical that it does much for us here in the SW and Central VA region, with that--


Too much technical talk, Keith-- I want snow.

Storm 1 Feb 5-6.

We should have a decent chunk of low level cold air but the pattern isn't ideal. Low cuts to our west and we get maybe a brief period of Snow that goes to ice and maybe rain. Has some potential to be our first "winter storm warning" for the metro areas because the need is for over .25 of ice. Some model data now shows 2-3 inches of snow BEFORE the ice. As the low cuts west a secondary low pops off the coast to our east-- could be bigger event Northern VA west of the DC metro and into central PA.

My take-- In general, the models will look to ominous with snow early on, and as the event gets closer it becomes a mostly freezing rain event. If the the cold air is deep enough, sleet could be a larger part of the equation.

Here is a teaser map from the 12z ECMWF-- This is snowfall late Saturday night. Not saying this is accurate, just SHOWING what a model says. Storm would end as freezing rain in the later frames.

Possible event 2- Feb 9-13 ish.

Overall pattern looks pretty good- the lack of blocking in the NAO region could allow the "mean trough" to be a shade too far east meaning a storm slides off to our south and east and misses us or NOTHING comes from it. There will be some energy coming out of the So CALI region, but we need that energy to make it across the states. We live far enough south that depending on what is called a "miller B" to get snow is a bad idea. (Philly north is the Miller B favored spots)

After mid Feb-- some of the people I trust see it turning warmer. With the -AO at -4, I can see that being wrong, but I'm not sold either way. Something to watch-- the pattern has been so extreme warm, hard to see this being a permanent change.