12z Model data is confirming that a colder, snowier solution is becoming more likley. With that, I'm opting to NOT attempt to be the first go bigger, but try to be give an honest presentation of where things sit.
With that, my statement of adding two inches to my first guess seems more and more likely. However, in terms of "wiggle room". I can see 50 miles of wiggle room on the models. 50 mile wiggle north moves LYH from 6-7 inches on the GFS to 2-3 inches. 50 miles wiggle south on the NAM moves LYH into well over a foot (as modeled)
We've got a ways to go here-- I'd expect winter storm watches by either later this afternoon or early Satuday. (Excluding southside)
Full update during late evening model runs.
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