We have decent model agreement at this time as the Euro and GFS moved north, the NAM isn't givin us 10 inches anymore and the canadian is the least snowiest.
While I am confidence that all areas see snow, some of the fring areas are on the line between 1-2 and 3-4 inches.
General ideas:
Danville to South Hill 6-9 inches.
Martinsville to Altavista to Charlotte Court House 4-8
NRV to Roanoke into Northern Amherst County- 2-4 inches (Not in the warning area either)
Campbell, Most of Bedford, City of Lynchburg Appomattox-3-6
Concerns: The distance between 2 and 5 inches isn't much at all. I could easily see city of Lynchburg getting 2 inches and the Foodlion in Rustburg getting 5. 15 miles will make a huge diference and we stil have many models giving 2-3 inches and others give 6-8 in Lynchburg and 1-2 Roanoke or5-7 in Roanoke.
Positives: We have great conditions for snow growth, so ratios will be great. General rule of thumb is that 1 inch of liquid is 10 inches of snow.
This could end up at 15 to 1 so. Last night's euro gave Lynchburg .5 liquid, that would make 7.5 or so inches of snow.
My lock of the event: Everyone east of a line from Martinsville North to Moneta up near SML east to Altavista and Brookneal--Meets Winter storm criteria of 4 or more inches.
May the force be with everone north of that line. You'll see snow, but it's a fine line between 1-4-5 inches
Time: Some flurries possible late afternoon and evening, but the good stuff arrives midnight and later. Ends all areas by noon. NRV/Roanoke 8-9, Lynchburg 9-11 and points east by noon.
My guesses: Roanoke 3 Lynchburg 4.2 and Danville 8
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