For my longtime readers, you guys know when I am confident, I have no problem throwing out ideas early. This is not the case...so, my plea is to keep expectations low :)
Glossary terms for shorter posts: EC- European model, GFS- American- GEM- Canadian.
The bad..
1.GFS isn't close and doesn't give much near us . Tremendous storm for eastern NC.
2. The Canadian is now good on wave 1, east on wave 2. We get 2 inches total, most Thursday night in Friday.
3. NAM- American regional model is south still.
The "wow"
European model has been consistent 3 runs in a row with 3-5 inches region wide and was a stronger system where 7-10 inches wasn't that far away (50-70 miles)
The Euro ensembles look better too-- for the first time. Ensembles are the model run 51 times with small changes to weed out model biases.
My thoughts-- someone has to blink soon. The EC being a better model is almost like those sprint ads where they say Verizon is better, but only 1% better...so, my confidence isn't booming, yet.
Timing-- Thursday evening, Flurries to an inch.
Friday night and Saturday- Holding at 2-4 region wide, not a locked in forecast.
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