About this possible event..

First, wow my last blog was bad. I expected no updates. The models were very wrong about the pattern and cold will come, leave and then come back in the time I thought would be mild.

Thursday may be a mess. Sometimes the worst traffic events come from small amounts of snow.. a slim coating is possible but with colder temps in place roads could get bad fast. I'd rather drive in 5 inches of snow when everyone knows to be safe then just a little when people don't take as much caution.

The writing could be on the all for Saturday for a BIG ticket event.  The EURO and GEM have not had it for days and those ensembles are not great either.  The GFS was great to watch rolling in but I had a hunch it was off. Here is why...


Speed of the short wave..

Wave one on Thursday is on the arctic front. Most storms need about 3 days or space or so to amplify (simply version) and some features in the Pacific Northwest likely eject the second piece of energy about 18 -24 hours too quickly... while the GFS shows it holding west a little more. (Credit to David Reese, Met from Charlottesville for the graphics,)

Note the blue dot over Oregon

This is the EURO...no Blue Dot.  The energy has already moved east. 

So, in summary I think the euro may be right on timing and the low doesn't develop as fast because the timing issue with that. Still, it could provide another period of light snow Friday Night and Saturday, with maybe decent snows into Eastern NC. 

Will do a more quick status updates after the model runs tonight..Even a weaker strung out low could edge north as we get closer. At this time, Thursday may be the best bet to whiten the ground in our general area and travel may be horrible for a while.

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