Yes, the snow talk is legit..5 things you need to know about the weekend snow potential in Roanoke, Lynchburg, Danville and Blacksurg.

But, 5 days is a long ways away.

I try to communicate the uncertainty when I talk storms and explain what can go wrong, because things will go wrong. 5 days is forever and we are currently on the southern fringe of a storm. Usually, the north trend would seem huge and we'd already be telling you yeah, models says yes but the end results will be north of here.

There are occasions where storms trends south.. those usually have strong confluence and/or strong cold air advection. This one currently has both..

So- basically a storm slides to our north Friday and drags a cold front through. Cold air is still pushing in as the storm approaches form our west. The blocking/confluence forces the storm to our south (EG, near Nashville, to Charlotte then reforms off the NC coast) Yes, it's march, yes- we are having a very warm winter but our weather history is littered with storms that had very warm temps the day or three before the event.

So here are 5 key things to know!

1. 5 days out is a long time and things can and will change. Anyone who tells you "exactly" what will happen is just guessing.
2. There is reason to suspect there could be a further adjustment south which is great if you want snow because of confluence/north trends.
3. Beware of snow maps on FB, what your app says and anything old floating around. I've had someone tell me "it's supposed to be 50 saturday, my app just says rain, etc) Bloggers and really anyone with a computer can pull up the latest model data. There are legit trends that point towards a storm.
4. If there is an event, timing looks to be Saturday late into Sunday. Literally all types of precipitation are possible meaning snow, sleet, rain and freezing rain. All options are on the table-- from a mostly rain event to a mostly snow event. 2 runs of the GFS push the rain/snow line right up to 460 from Roanoke to Richmondand ring out a good bit of snow really fast.
5. Model data at this point comes in every 12 hours, except the American Model (GFS) which runs every 6 hours. Each run should help clarify what direction we are going in. And, Relax--it's a March storm. Even if we max out snow and get a nice event, roads are much easier to clear in March.

2 Cool maps/graphs...

1. This is a composite of matching patterns based on what the models show 5 days out. Our region averages out to a 6-8 inch snowfall.

2. A list of those analogs and explaining what events are popping up. 

So, those are the best matches at 300 mb for the upcoming event. A perfect score is a 1.. Some of the bigger events listed.
2/20/83-- 18 inches Roanoke, 15 Lynchburg.
2/15/03-- Big sleet storm. 3-7 inches region wide.
1987 1-25  18 inches Roanoke, 13 Lynchburg.
3/12/1993-- 30 NRV, 19 Roanoke, 15 Lynchburg.
1/20/2010--8-15 inches region wide.


So, point being we have some potential for some type of snowfall.
My thoughts match the analog map listed. I believe Winchester to Harrisonburg to Leesburg have the best shot for a 6+ inch event. Next area would be DC Metro down to CHO to Fredricksburg-- slightly less chance. The next bracket would include Roanoke, Lynchburg and Richmond. I think we see a shift south per the pattern but then the storm nudges north late, which always happens. Of course, all the midnight model runs could lose the event too :)

Will try to do a blog tomorrow evening and will tweet/post more during model runs. Feel free to share this and ask questions if you have them.