Shovels will be splintered, Scrapers will be shattered, records could be broken..

Much of the fun of snow storms to me is the tracking. The kid in me still gets excited when it when the first flakes fall, there isn't much I enjoy more than taking my kids sledding, and snow on the ground despite the cold makes me happy. BUT, when I get a good feel for what as storm is going to do and it behaves reasonably within those parameters and it such a good feeling.

We don't know the ending yet and last nights model runs are like a good movie-- you think you know what's going to happen but you're not quite sure. Looking at the set up way back Monday- I said the storm would trend colder HERE and they did. Now, we just sort out the details.

There are 3 major models I check (and a couple other I glance at) plus a few short term models that are important the last 24-48 hours. I don't just look at snow maps. I track surface lows, 500 MB lows, jet streams, 700mb vertical velocities..  and my favorite, soundings/Skew T to get a feel for the temps of the atmosphere all layers up to the clouds. Soundings are very important to figure out snow/sleet mix times.

Model data is VERY good agreement- Low pressure forms and once it's near NE Alabama it jumps quickly to the South Carolina coast and heads northeast to near Wilmington, NC to a point right off the VA/NC coast and heads East Northeast from there. The Euro finally stopped putting out 30 inch snowfalls and is in a more reasonable 20 to 25 inch range, the GFS had an epic run of 25 inches and other data falls in that range too.

I've mentioned the Euro model a lot. Last night's run was a more reasonable 21 inches. Our record snowfall is 21.2. Now, I REALLY want a record. That 21 inches is on a straight 10-1 ratio. If we get some fluff, we could see 25 from it. Here is the Euro with a snow algorithm that accounts for ratios.

If  that happens, we set a standard not seen for over a 100 years in our area. 

Here is a rough sketch of what I think happens over most of VA...

Most areas 14-24 inches, Locally higher. Some sleet may mix Friday evening . Danville to South Hill 10-18 inches, sleet will mix in. South East of Richmond, some snow falls but it does change to ice then rain, before ending as snow. They should see 3-6 total and have some sad kids who just want snow.

Snow start time is between 5-7 am in the west and 9 to 11 in the Lynchburg region. 

Two things that could go wrong:

1. We sleet more. Only one model has a warm layer and it's not that bad and mixes out quickly. If data moves this way, we'd have to evaluate totals in those regions. 

2.  We dry slot too soon. All mature lows develop a dry slot. This is modeled to stay to our south and east, but always worth watching. 

How to break the record:

1. No sleet. Obviously. 

2. Cool some layers of the atmosphere to maximize snow growth. 

3. Deformation zone. The epic runs of the Euro and GFS had a deformation zone (Cold conveyor belt) of snows that linger over our area. These are great ratio snows that are often 15-1 or more ratio snows. 

I don't make final calls. This is a living document and if we need to adapt, we will. 

My exact guesses:

Blacksburg 23 inches

Roanoke 21.5

Lynchburg 19.1

Danville 14.2

Thanks for the shares on FB/Twitter. We set a daily view record yesterday. I will continue the live tweets/ FB during model runs. May blog again later tonight but they end up not being read much storm days. Share your pics, measurements and observations on FB/ Twitter.