Look, I blew December. I figured there'd be a warm spell. No idea it be a top 2 warmest Christmas week ever and the warmest December on record by 5-6 degrees most areas. Simple didn't see that and even if I did, I'd have tempered it back because that was such a rare event.
The meat of my forecast was Slightly above normal snowfall, centered from Late January till Middle to late February. The "Godzilla" El Nino is making the pattern look different than last year, but in a "sensible weather" (AKA, what you get outside") may not be off that far from last year where we had some colder temps, but the bulk of the snow fell in 2-3 weeks. (Subtract the -10 temp departure and make it -3 to -5 for a 30 day period. )
I still like that Jan 20th ish till Mid February Time frame for the bulk of our winter. I still like my original numbers which are WinterOutlook
Lynchburg 20-25 inches. Roanoke 25-30 inches, Blacksburg 30-40 inches, Danville 10-20 inches.
Now, there is never a sure thing and somethings can still go wrong. I want to show you the Super Ensemble matching dates for 11 days from now
2 dates in 1983 where we were 2-3 weeks away from a HUGE snow storm. (but not that close that this pattern mattered)
4 dates in 1998-- 3 are close to 2 big Nor Easters. the first one was a HUGE Mountain snow storm that just missed LYH, and changed to Rain in Roanoke and the second was a near miss, but so close too.
Random 06 date that did nothing.
1978 2 days before a HUGE blizzard to our Northeast.
1958 2 weeks before a BIG snowstorm.
1966-- A day in between 2 storms that dumped a collected 2 feet on our area, 12 or so each event.
Point being, we are entering into a "loaded" pattern that still has a legit shot to verify my outlook snow wise. Temperatures, no way to recover from that +12 last month, but I think we do finish January below normal and likely February too.
With that, you can see how some analogs years LOOKED close with the pattern but did not deliver. 1998 downfall was cold air.. and I looking at the arctic oscillation I think that's not going to be a problem. If a pattern like this holds on long enough, eventually it will deliver something to our region.
Speaking of the arctic oscillation, it looks to drop VERY low and when it does, it tends to drop that low again not soon after. Remember that a POSITIVE AO tends to keep the cold air bottled up in the Arctic Region and the Negative Phase is a "weaker polar vortex" which pushes cold air AWAY from the north pole and down to the middle latitudes where we live. This supports my idea of a nice 20 day run of winter. So, Martin Luther King day and forward, I am expecting my pattern to deliver and there is actually a "chance" middle of next week something brings us a little snow or ice.
Last idea and then I'll let you be. Don't trust anyone who puts "weather" in a Facebook page. Outside of the "news media" there are very few places I would trust. If anyone posts a map of snowfall totals for 2-3 weeks out, my suggesting is to not follow them. ONE run of any model can get you any solution, especially 12 days out. I don't mind questions being asked to me ever.. you all know I love this stuff. However, I want my readers to be educated enough to know that people who post hype are not good follows.
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