The one word that will prevent us from breaking a top 10 event is SLEET. IF we avoid sleet JUST enough, a top tier event is likely. The top storm in Roanoke is 24.9 from the Blizzard of 96 while in Lynchburg is 21.2 also from that event. 13. 8 inches is needed in Roanoke for a top 10 storm while 12.8 is needed in Lynchburg.
In a stroke of common sense, the snowiest models have the least amount of sleet. The Euro model, which has trended colder and more south as it passes our area has NO sleet. The Canadian has no sleet as well on it's last run. The GFS and NAM have moved away from sleet mixing but still have some sleet. The Euro has 4 runs in a row had our snow totals of north of 2 feet, even 30 inches a few times. For my long time readers, you know I am very methodical about tracking the sleet and ice line. With that, the GFS and NAM have been very sleety, but have the most north track as well. AS they have moved towards more southern track of the Euro as it passes our region, we've seen a reduction in sleet. This will be a key to our forecast.
This is the most extreme solution offered by the Euro. This has a special algorithm that accounts for sleet, snow ratio's etc. This could be offered as "maxing out" this event, but wow, setting a record in Lynchburg may not be that difficult. 21. 3 inches needed. Getting to 30, even 34 is amazing. Going frame by frame on the models, we have a burst where in 6 hours Friday night about an inch of liquid falls. My hunch is that may be over done a bit.
I may draw a rough map, but this is my rough ideas now, Remember, I like to go UP as an event gets closer and not down in snowfall forecasts.
Roanoke, Blackburg and Lynchburg= 12 to 20 inches. Some sleet could mix in. At this point, that mix with sleet would be the difference between 12 and 20 inches. If your area does not see sleet, 20 inches is the preferred total. Higher amounts possible where the best banding sets up.
Southside- Martinsville area 10-16 inches, some sleet will likely mix.
Danville area 8-14 inches. More sleet mixes
South Boston 6-12 inches, even MORE sleet
Repeat: If any one place doesn't see sleet.. including southside, something near 20 inches is a likely total.
Timing: The storm is likely taking a more southern path to a point off of Cape Hatteras late Friday night. This path has slowed our start time down a bit to Friday Morning. Far west regions as early as 5 am and far east times east of Lynchburg as late as 10am or so. The storm should last into Saturday before it winds down Saturday afternoon. The worst of the storm will be Friday evening into overnight. Outside shot with a rapidly deepening low and strong upper air energy approaching that a rumble of thunder is heard too.
We won't have the needed winds for "blizzard" warnings but this will be a high impact event.
Obviously, school will be closed Friday. Most churches will be closed over the weekend.
This afternoon a small system will approach and could give us flurries to a coating. A coating after a few cold days if often a recipe for disaster, so be cautious on the roads if you do see some flakes falling.
Monday and Tuesday high temps go back into the low and mid 40's so a realistic shot schools open by Wednesday, possible Tuesday if we get the lower end amounts.
I will continue my tweets/posting as model runs come out. I'll be more specific and target information about possible sleet mixing and amounts. Please share this blog with your friends and families!
No comments:
Post a Comment