The March 6 hype--

Social Media has made weather forecasting next to impossible. Just about everyone has an idea some of the data shows a potential big snow next week. Someone posts a map, people take it as gospel and chaos ensues.

Here is the skinny..

1. Pattern is ripe for a big storm, but has some flaws and issues.
2. We have decently cold air aloft, but the lack of High Pressure to our north to push in LOW LEVEL cold is an issue.
3. Model data spread is from suppressed in South Carolina to blowing up late and missing our region, but bringing a good event from DC north.
4. Timing is everything-- the exact strength of the blocking to our northeast and timing of the shortwaves will determine this event.

My guess at this point-


33% chance we see an accumulating snow. From that, 10% shot it's over 6 inches and 3% shot it's over a foot.

Key issue is how hard it snows. If we get 12-18 hours of light to moderate snow, we could get ..50 of liquid that only accumulates a slushy inch and is basically melted before the last flurry ends.

Trends last night-

If there were any trends last night, it was for a later phase which leaves us drier as the storm is disorganized before this point.

The key shortwave will be coming ashore later tonight over Western Canada-- that will help. I think by mid day tomorrow we should have a general idea of if this is a legit threat.

FWIW--


The HPC HAD an area of liquid in our region of between .5 and .75. After the model data last night they shifted that east and we are in a .25 to .5 for the period. Not that this is gospel, but it was a step back for our region and a step forward for places to our north and east.