It's not usually fair to say "What if this were"-- but we've had some pretty strong blocking most of March. Had this taken place 2 months ago-- we'd of had a heck of a winter. The March 5-6 storm likely would have been all snow, and 10-as much as 20 inches region wide. Even with the warm March sun pushing Tuesday March 5 up to 50, it started as sleet in Roanoke with dry and and even the rain here, the first 10 minutes or so had some "slush" in the drops as the dry air didn't allow for total melting.
With that, another minor event possible-- I should of blogged this yesterday, but the kids got me busy playing Mario on the Wii U :)
Cold front has passed and colder air is filtering in--
This is a 100% timing event-- as warm air is being pushed back over the top and causing more precip to fall. If the timing is off, we could get a little more or less than anticipated. Either way, not a huge event. There are winter storm warnings for the same areas that got BEAT DOWN on the March 5-6 storm The warnings are for 4-8 inches. Timing is good, with much falling as night, but as we've gotten closer, the warm air aloft is coming in a tad faster. So, sleet may be a bigger issue on some areas of 81 as well cutting down on the large 8 inch amounts. (Especially east of the Blue Ridge like Charlottesville)
Southside is mainly safe-- rain.
NRV would likely see less than LYH and ROA.
Some freezing drizzle is possible after the main batch moves out and we have some linger moisture in the early and mid morning.
ROA and LYH-- up to a slushy inch of sleet and a little snow. Not a big deal, and certainly likely a school delay NOT needed but I'm sure they will. :)
March isn't over-- and neither is our shots at snow, yet. Data has been hinting around March 25 another "big" coastal low. I know March 5-6 failed due to the lack of fresh cold air-- this storm "may" have it. That's a LONG ways away and subject to much change.
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