Some thoughts before the evening model chaos

Hard to blog when I, well-- work a real job. :)

This morning I hinted that the 6-14 forecasted by the NWS for Lynchburg was likely too high and they've adjusted everyone region wide down, with highest amounts of 6-10 for Amherst  and Rockbridge county.

1. My statement of the ULL needing to touch NE South Carolina is huge-- and this won't happen. HUGE snow option pretty much off the table Lynchburg. Track now is MAYBE just north of 1-40 in North Carolina. If this had very strong cold air, we could deal with this, but in March with no parent high is a no go. 

2. The trend has been more rain and less snow. This was obvious before the 6-14 call this AM from the NWS, but it was "watch" not "warning". My guesses have been a bit high as well. One issue is assuming a trend stops. As this as trending more north and warmer, assuming 36 hours this is done is foolish. So, my current thoughts of 2-5 may be high. 

3. I need to follow my own rules of things ALWAYS trend north. This was NOT a confluence instance (Like Feb 19th last year) that kept it south, but vort interactions. That's a different breed. Some of the data now makes this a full blow Noreaster that runs up the east coast bring big snows along or maybe just west of   of I-95. 

4. The 18z GFS showed another way to get close to 6 inches in Lynchburg. The low takes the further north route and we do get decent rains. However, it REALLY cranks up around SE VA and sends warm air WELL to the North of the low. this pushes the snow bands well to the west and even south west where the decent, accumulating snows make it back to close to 460 in our region, especially east of Roanoke. 

So, with that-- my current thoughts which I will update later tonight or early tomorrow.

For  ROA- 

Mainly rain, ending as a snow, under 2 inches 60%

Ends as snow 2-5 inches 40%

Over 5 inches 10%

For LYH

Mainly rain, ending as snow-- under 2 inches 40%

Ending as snow 2-5 inches 40%

over 5 inches- 20$

Danville--

Anything above 2 inches would shock me. 

NRV- gets a little crazy with elevation. maybe 2-4 inches.

** Edited to say-- you can see how precarious this is** I can totally see Amherst getting 10 inches in the city and by the time you hit Fosters Fuel on 29 it's 2 inches.