Reluctant Blog, reluctant forecast--

I believe this event was mentioned on my last blog March 17th. Great pattern, strong short wave-- end of March??

As I stated, had this been a January pattern and not the end of March, it of been one for the record books.  March 5-6 is a 10-20 inch event, a couple smaller ones and this one on the horizon. If it were January 24th, I'd be deciding between forecast 3-6 and maybe 8-12.

But, we are stuck. I've considering blogging but being honest-- the models have STUNK this year and it's made it hard. They keep upgrading these things and before you can work out the kinks for your specific region in interpretation, (especially winter with the temp issues of snow vs rain vs sleet) and just a LACK of events has made it a challenge.

So, model data is all over the place. Some models have been showing pretty snowy solutions and others have been showing SOME snow, but daylight, lighter precipt etc makes me infer it won't accumulate.

I'm still a snow lover at heart and part of my NON blogs was just not wanting to invest in ANOTHER event that will disappoint me. I mean, Jan 25th clipper with an inch was fun, but I expected an inch. Jan 17th rain to snow was fun-- 3-5 inches of heavy stuff and 2 hours of the biggest flakes I've seen in LYH was awesome. Everything else has been a let down.

From a snow lovers point of view--

If everything goes right--

We can see 6 inches.

If everything goes wrong, we get a burst of sleet and snow that doesn't lay-- and then occasional flurries and snow showers that don't accumulate.

As a forecaster-- I feel obligated to share both sides and then make an official call.


As of now-- Roanoke and Lynchburg 1-3, with a little sleet likely as the events start. The biggest part is over by 8 PM tomorrow if not sooner and we just have lingering flurries and snow showers.

NRV into the Highlands 2-5-- mostly snow. Better snow in the favored up slope areas.


Will hit Facebook and twitter harder from this point. Everything else will be really now casting. . The LATEST Euro and NAM have a pretty decent burst of snow tomorrow mid day through dinner time.
*GGEM* as well-- canadian model. If your  a snow walk or like taking snow pictures, would be an excellent time.

BTW, no complaining over late March snows. They literally melt the same day. Literally, I would expect most to melt overnight Sunday, event if we get 3-4 inches.