Sunday looking small- Monday- Tuesday Standing Tall

First, Sunday-- Southside and Mt Empire/NRV may get more than a coating but not big deal .  Roanoke-Lynchburg,  flurries and some light snow, not much more than a coating. Not a big deal. The energy got sheared out and suppressed. I don't think many churches will be looking at closing except the extreme southwest areas near Hillsville.

Monday into Tuesday looks like a legit good threat. 5 days out, some changes will happen, but It seems things are slowly coming into focus.

A low pressure, aided by the "lack of storm"Sunday will form in the Gulf of Mexico and move from a point east of Charleston, SC to just east of the VAB. A clipper type system with some northern energy is moving towards us at the same time.  The models have moved away from a strong phased system, but there is some interaction which helps the storm get stronger.

You all know that I like snow,so this is pro snow-- if you want snow

1. We want the low stronger, faster.
2, We want it close enough to bring the best moisture, but far enough to not change over.
3. To maximize accumulation, a little slower on the onset to avoid the March sun.

General Pitfalls:
1. It won't be all snow in southside, It should start as snow, mix with sleet/rain and then end as snow.
2.The sleet line may challenge forecasts all the way up to the Blue Ridge Parkway, including Lynchburg.
3. Western regions COULD see a little less precipitation hence a little less snow.

General ideas: WAYYYY to early to set out calls at this time, but I want to give a heads up to the impact possible. This is clearly subject to change.


 Martinsville to Gretna to Brookneal and south will mix and a broad 1-4 inches of snow and slush seem possible.

Every where else,  including Blacksburg, Roanoke, Bedford, Lynchburg  4 to 8 inches of snow seem like a good starting point. We have plenty of time to fine tune and adjust these based on the exact tract and strength of the low pressure.

I'd like to see at least 4 in LYH and 6 in ROA to continue the double digit snow years to 5 years.

Click an add for appreciation. Remember, I will tweet/post about the model runs during the day.