Winter Storm Watch over our ENTIRE area... SIGNIFICANT snow likely now.

Certainly had a feeling that would be the right course of action after watching evening model runs.

First, in my "weather hobbyist" ever running chat-- I noted that I failed to mention the bitter cold this AM and snow showers yesterday. It wasn't a shock and played out as I expected. That was an exciting 20 minutes of snow.  I need to do a better job of conveying messages about cold and windchill. It's the big story today with temps at 7 or so this AM and windchills well below zero.

The wave 1- wave 2 issue has been resolved. For the last few days, resolving if wave 1 or wave 2 would be dominant was causing model chaos, which in turn lead to forecasting challenges. The traditional thinking was slow this down, let the jets phase as I mentioned and we'd get a bigger event.

1 is the polar Jet, 2 is the Subtropical Jet. 

Where this ended up was, the phase was NOT needed and Polar Jet is riding solo on this event. 

1. Time issues- When the thought that the phase was needed, it was almost a full 24 hours slower. As a result, our storm time is now Monday afternoon until Tuesday morning.

2. Mixing issues? Here goes my north trend talk. We are literally in the bullzeye at this point and 100% snow on most of the models. These things tend to nudge north with time. I'd put odds at 50/50 that some mixing occurs late in the storm up to the Blue Ridge including Danville, Lynchburg and Martinsville. 

3. Snow amounts.  I held to my thoughts of 2-4 and I'm glad I kept snow options on the table. Looks like DOUBLING that amount nice place to start most places. Even if we mix, 4 inches should occur most places. Very possible places exceed 8 inches and I've noted that in my map.

4. VERY cold during this event and even colder after. Reasonable shot many places get close to 0 Wednesday and Thursday AM. 

5. School closings-- Be ready for some serious closing issues. Tuesday is about a lock to be closed. 

Wednesday at best will be a delay, but with cold temps MAYBE slightly above freezing Tuesday afternoon I doubt the back roads are clear enough to have school Wednesday. Thursday AM will be COLDEST of the days with lows near 0, slightly below 0 possible. That screams 2 hour delay unless we get the 8-10 inch amounts possible. That gets us to Friday. (I heard some schools did not close for Presidents Day too-- which somewhat bothers me and I got an email from Abe Lincoln and he's really upset about it) So, as of now-- 1 day closed and 2 days delayed is about a lock.  2 days closed and 1 day delayed is likely. 3 days closed 1 day delayed is still an option and man, for you teachers out there-- would not rule out  the entire week being gone if your specific region gets 10 inches. 

6. Another storm on the map next weekend. Has the potential to be a decent event, good changes it's a mixed bag and another big cold shot behind that one. 

Region wide 4-8 is likely. ON the west side of the red, up to 10 inches possible.
These numbers may need to be massaged a little either way as we get closer
to the event.