Superbowl Sunday & Nor Easter Comments.

I wanted to comment first on the Nor'Easter from this past Monday-Tuesday. Tough storm but fun to attempt and forecast. There has been a lot of comments either way and my readers are usually kind towards me for many reasons, some being that they've known me their entire life. (Yeah, like you Shannon H) It was like a comedy of errors watching model runs (Most run 2x a day, some run 4x a day and some run every hour) The lack of trends and consistency was remarkable.
1. Models are just that-- MODELS. They are not sensible weather and literally once the data is uploaded it's already WRONG. Point being, we've made huge advances but models will be wrong. When a low has to reform and the difference is 75 miles between a foot and NOTHING, these things will happen.
2. Damage control can be mitigated by conveying uncertainty in the forecast. Outside of Eastern New England, this was a KNOWN possibility all along. Chatting with a friend and his wife along the CT coast, I promised them a foot and said 24-30 was possible. I knew that was a lock. They were on the western edge of where I KNEW a foot was possible. I would not have promised them 2 feet. They reported 20, but a met from the area reported 14.
3. Start small. Even in most of Massachusetts, I found the 2-3 feet NWS calls a bit much. It's always easier to start small and convey totals could go up based on strength and track. In NYC area, where they were on the far west of the 2-3 feet 'modeled" snow-- even more so a reason to go low.
4. The trick is in the wording-- there has to be some ambiguity in forecasting.  Convey a cushion to your audience allows you to back track when needed.
5. You, as an "receiver" of the forecast needs to educate yourself.  Be able to tell where you on a map, have a radar app on your phone. (Rainy Days for Android, My Radar for Iphone)
6. Media outlets need to be quicker in updating forecasts. When a storm is developing wrong, radio stations, etc often have the "old" tape running for a long while after a storm is clearly going to different.
7. Facebook could do the world a favor and make a special category for Weather services, even if it doesn't include my "folksy" page. For legit weather entities, OLD data coming up in the FB stream is brutal. For the average person, they could have been VERY confused. I'd see an update from NWS near NYC that had old maps, then the new maps underneath it based on their algorithm of who liked and posted. Rather than putting more pressure on these outlets to delete data, have something done where old data can be pushed back in time sensitive situations like this. Facebook and Zuckerburg have changed the world-- how about some efforts to save some lives and just make it easier. SO many people get information from  facebook about the weather. Make it a priority that people are getting CURRENT information, not 12 hour old data, which is ancient in weather terms.


Superbowl Sunday-

Don't think it's out storm again. *Lynchburg and Roanoke area*



Just can't get a break this winter. Decent cold air in place, and a strong arctic front racing our way and it seems the cold air will be 12 hours too late. Storm tracking JUST a bit to close for all snow.

1. Departing HP slow to leaving-- this doesn't allow our storm to move or develop south.
2. Our actual Low, forced to move between
3. Arctic High bringing cold air.

Low should track NE Louisiana to Bristol TN to Norfolk.-- if not even a shade north.

Starts as snow, mixes with sleet and rain, ends as snow.