Forecasting ...

Means to predict or estimate.

Remember that when your weather guy gets one wrong. :)

True story last weekend while watching that Seahawks - Pack game that I put on facebook-- Famous last words, this feels over. Pack had dominated most of the game, Seahawks had no time and again could not move the ball. We know how that ended up for my call-- NOT TOO GOOD!

This storm has been up and down-- the best thing I said was when it was suppressed (Best snows over eastern NC per the models) is that I am more concerned it will be too warm than not wet enough.

This map shows where our LOW is tomorrow early evening and shows you where the is a LOW over CANADA where we need a high. That low is what costs us a decent snow event. Had it been a decent High that pushed JUST cold enough air, we'd be looking at a 12 inch snow fall.

Note the L near FL coast and the SECOND L in Canada. That is killing our cold air supply. 

Forecasting this has been tough. There are no exact flow charts to show you what should go where for temps and this is very marginal everywhere. 

1. Danville should be mainly rain. Maybe a quick burst of sleet and or snow start then a cold rain. 

2. Roanoke and Lynchburg won't see a ton of snow, but an inch or two of sleet and snow is possible, especially west of LYH towards Roanoke. 

3.  Lynchburg will start as a burst of snow and sleet and move to sleety rain and maybe a period of freezing rain. The data shows cold air JUST above the surface so literally SNOWFLEX could have ice forming while timberlake road is just wet. (It's happened before)

4. Roanoke Will start as sleet and snow, hang on to sleet longer and end as rain. 

5. Would be remiss to not mention Blue Ridge Weather has idea of a second wave of snow saturday AM. Would be rare, but possible 

6. Fast mover- best stuff should actually be gone by midnight or shortly there after. 

We do have some other chances for snow in the next 2 weeks. Superbowl weekend LATE has an interesting set up where there is a strong pulse on the Sub tropical Jet and some decent cold shots coming from the arctic regions. Both seem legit.

1. The SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) bottomed WAY out which means the get will be more amped with moisture and energy. 

2. The EPO is forecasted to go negative. That is what kept us cold most of last winter. 

This will be a now cast event-- I like a quick coating in LYH and some freezing rain. I like more sleet in Roanoke, ending as rain. The further up 81 you get, the more snow and sleet you get. Decent event Hagerstown, Lancaster..etc.