Monday, Monday-

I've been monitoring a storm for Monday. It's been the model battle of the year.

The set up:

Sunday will be a fantastic day. Warm-- 55-60, maybe a few bonus degrees if you are nice. However, a SUPER strong arctic front is poised to charge through our area RIGHT as a storm approaches.

As the norm, TIMING will be everything.

The outcome:

Largely undecided at this point.

Best case- Some rain showers Monday, ending as a few flurries and then it gets COLD fast. Temps Tuesday morning may be as low as 10 degrees.

Middle of the road-- Cold air is faster, we flip to snow quickly and get a few inches.

Worst case: Cold air seeps in slowly and we get rain, to freezing rain, to sleet ending as snow. Whatever is on the ground freezes into a BLOCK, which may be under an inch but would just be a total pain to plow, etc.

As of now, I'm leaning a blend with rain flipping to sleet, ending as snow. 1-3 inches EAST of the  Blue Ridge, highest amounts NORTH like Amherst and Nelson County. Roanoke, NRV and Danville flip later with coating to an inch-- of sleet and snow that freezes into a brick as well.

Will update as needed, which will be often. My kids are tired of missing school so I have to pretend to root this one away.

Crystal Ball:

Some model data has hinted at another "Miller A" (Storm that forms in the Gulf and rides the coast) late next week. Exact track and amount of cold air largely in question. I like the potential for a decent event-- but we have a lot to deal with before then.

Cheer up, now-- the cold coming Monday is SUPER cold for March, but even with that, the sun angle is comparable to October so snow and ice WILL melt faster. So, no matter what-- it will only be a day or two.