Active week on tap

The two waves will come and go over the weekend with at best, a coating to an inch. Two factors working against us will be limited moisture and relative warmth. So, I think we see a couple hours of light Saturday am that will whiten the mulch or something, and melts by 2-3 pm. Sunday brings more of the same.


Mid week is more promising for a bigger event..

Wave one: May end up being north, but some data suggest we could get an inch or two. This may end up a Mason Dixon line special, like everything else this winter.

There COULD be some overunning before the NEXT event, but I'm not willing to commit.

Wave 2: Low pressure forms in the gulf and moves NE to a point off the North Carolina coast. This should be a more moisture laden system. The issue will be the cold air is not anchored in place. On the GFS model in this range, I can get views of the atmosphere and get a good gauge on if we are getting snow, sleet or whatever else may fall. The Euro model makes you pay $$ for those and as a result I have to infer.

Last run of GFS gives us a couple inches and a quick change to ice.

Last euro gives 1-2 inches Monday with a larger event Wednesday. Larger as in over 6 inches, that if all snow would be near 10-- but likely has some sleet and freezing rain late. Not a forecast-- just passing along what the model shows.

MAP TIME!

What could prevent us from getting a bigger snow.

I've made some crude additions to this map. Note there are 2 L's on my map. One is near the panhandle of Florida and the other is right over Minnesota. We like the low coming out the Gulf of Mexico but the MN low is a problem in that it warms things up, especially above 5k feet. (AKA, ice probems below that)

Also, note the Big H off the coast of Maine. That's our cold air source- High pressue, LEAVING.  Now, it COULD be just strong enough to let the mid week event fall as snow. COULD BE.. but that's not super likely. We'd like that HP over the Great Lakes or Upstate NY.

That makes me think as we trend closer, we could end up have more of an ice storm and less of a snow storm for wave 2. Something like 2-4 inches of snow and sleet with a glaze of ice on top...

Summary: Weekend events up to a coating both Saturday and Sunday. First Wave Monday maybe 1- 3 inches, Next Wave Wednesday--Good potential for a meaningful snow and ice event.