Firing up the Bat Signal and got..

Honestly, I liked it better when I had more information before many of my readers saw a snow map and thought it was legit.

My goal is to inform and educate but also speculate. However, I like to be accurate and when the notion is that 8-12 is being thrown around makes my job harder.

So, we have a cold front coming through-- outside shot of a coating to an inch tomorrow from 460 south to Danville with the cold air coming through. (Some model data shows it, other don't but it could happen) Will be a "last second" update-- but please be aware there is a threat tomorrow for a dusting to an inch.


Cold front clears and as modeled we get "phasing" at the perfect time that brings a low up the coast for a pretty big event. Most areas have had a GOOD event of 5-8 inches-- here in LYH we had 8 inches on Feb 19th, 2012 and 6-7 inches on Palm Sunday. Roanoke and Blacksburg have had a few events of 4-8 inches but we've not seen an across the board, 6+ inch event.

This has a legit shot to be that event.

Key issues

1.  We need phasing of the jets at the right time to create our storm and pull it north. If this doesn't happen, we won't get much.

2. We need the cold air to be as cold as modeled, or mixing will be a BIGGER concern. (Maybe even rain)

3.  We need the track to be close enough to being the heavy moisture but far enough to not warm it up. A few runs of the Euro have taken the low inland where it CLEARLY changes to ice at least up to the Blue Ridge.

4. We the High pressure to slow down just enough to keep our cold air REASONABLE along with a psuedo 50/50 low to hold long enough. This is a fast moving system so I'm not asking for a miracle, just enough to get our storm.

5. Can't completely rule out that it jogs so far inland we get RAIN. (Especially East of the Blue Ridge)


My guess is that we get a big precipitation maker, over an inch of liquid but will battle the sleet and freezing rain at some point, especially east of the Blue Ridge. 

Option 1: If the low stays too far south and east we are looking at a 1-5 inch snow fall.

Option 2: If the low is strong but comes to close we'd be looking at a 4-8 with sleet and freezing rain event.

Option 3: If It take the ideal path, 6-10 would be a reasonable starting point with the potential for more. I think if we max out the event with all snow 10-14 inches is the best we could do.


I don't have a favored path yet, but option 2 seems like a reasonable place to start. I'd start making plans for kids schools being out Wednesday and Thursday and MAYBE even Friday, God forbid you didn't have milk or bread, etc. Of course, we should actually be back in the 40's a day or two after this event so enjoy while it's on the ground. :)

More updates later on FB and Twitter.