Will we Cash Out or Crap Out?

 In the digital world of weather, the 0Z (Midnight run) of the Euro had 3 digital storms starting with Friday that brought us all snow each storm. The end total was 10 to 18 inches total from the three storms region wide. 

Will We Crash in or Crap out? The noon run of the same model lost all 3 storms, for those wondering. 

Specific to Friday's event. Those who forecast this right will have a blend of both luck, skill and climo knowledge. 

Summary- A low pressure and associate upper air low will approach the area. Some unusual factors make it a challenge to see how far north this storm will make it. Further, this may be a rare case where the upper air low impacts our area. Last big time I think this happened, Roanoke and Blackburg had 10 inches of snow in 3 hours during February of 2014 (after 10 had already fallen)

I am against showing the digital snow maps but I will show a few to show the challenge. Making it worse, the models often shift back and forth on what the outcome will be. 

Mid afternoon run of 12k NAM, Big snows southside, misses most of Roanoke to Lynchburg. 

Noon run of American Model that show now snow within 60 miles of Lynchburg. 

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3k NAM run mid afternoon, big snows into LYH, still mostly a non event in Roanoke. 

We are 48 hours from the event where clarity is not event close and many outcomes are possible. With that, it's not called forecasting for nothing. 

My initial thoughts for this first event-

Snow breaks out towards Morning southside and over spreads the entire region. This first push first guess is 2-4 inches from about the NRV South East towards South Boston. Further SW VA may do better here ( 3 to 6) Along 460 From Roanoke to Lynchburg this round will bring 1-3 inches. 

From this point, the forecast is tricky. The upper air support should then create a second round of snow. This is more tricky because it should be convective (think thunderstorm like, hit and miss) You get in these bands, you could get another 3-5, if you just get brushed another inch or two. Some places may be done after the initial push of snow. Very challenging. 

So, my current "First Guess"

  NRV down to Southside- 2-4 inches then we wait on the bonus snow.  If you get in the good bonus snow another 3-5 is possible. everyone won't get this. 

Roanoke to Lynchburg 1-3 initial push. 3-5 bonus snow possible too. Same disclaimer for not everyone will get it.

Everyone won't get it because often these bands set up and just don't really move. Then then weaken in that spot and form elsewhere. 

This is not a final call and this will change before the event.  Some timing issues where some models really hold off accumulating snows until late afternoon and other have snow on the ground in Lynchburg by 7 am. 

Other events worth watching early next week and then NEXT weekend.  Expect updates via Twitter and FB.