To Ridge or not to Ridge

 Despite the mini blizzard in parts of the region yesterday,  we have no specific threats on the horizon for winter weather. We've had some great blocking in the North and East of us (Good for snow) but inconsistent blocking to our West. This lack of blocking, combined with the very Warm December has killed any change of snow. If we had any level of pre existing cold, we'd of had a few events at this point. Instead, Lynchburg and Danville have no snow while Roanoke and Blacksburg are inching forward with small events. 

A key source of our cold air comes from the EPO region (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) and where that Ridge sits controls if Canada gets cold. Remember, Canada was very warm after December and the cold has been blocked on the other side of the  world. 

There could be some light rain or maybe even light snow Friday across the region but early next week there is a threat of something (January 25 to 27) Some models are running the low pressure across the Great Lakes (maybe some ice to Rain) Some are taking it right at us which is snow to ice to rain some places and a few, which in build that ridge across Alaska force it to our south and we see some snow. I have no faith in this ridge because it's been "forecasted" to build all month and simply has not, but eventually it should.  If the ridge isn't there, the cold air that comes in simply isn't that cold and the storm will move to our north. 

In a La Nina winter, quite often the best threats are in February and actually into March but early month I was somewhat optimistic we'd have an event or two by now. At this point, I am just hoping we can get an event or two this winter. La Nina winters are use less than average snow save a winters aside.