Growing up, I can remember 3 types of Grand Finales:
1. The standard. My great grandmother owned a house at Slaughters Beach, a location about 20 miles north of Rehoboth Beach, Delaware. The Fire Company hosted the fireworks each year and once the siren went off, the show started and it was a normal fun grand finale to end the show.
2. The Phillies game. My family went up to a Phillies game when I was 10 or so to see the 4th of July display. I figured the show would be pretty incredible and from the second the "Power 99" (local radio station sponsor) started shooting out sparks, my jaw dropped in amazement until the show was over. The Grand Finale is still the benchmark by which I grade all firework shows.
3. Delaware City. One year we stopped someplace new because we were not going to my grandmothers. Some of the shells didn't launch high enough and pieces of burning paper fell in the crowd. During the grand finale, the first firework didn't blast high enough and each subsequent firework got caught in the wake and blew up. There was a ton of noise, but no fancy light show at all. I look back and laugh because it was that bad and such a let down.
Winter has until about March 10th or so based on the pattern. I see three ways to have OUR Grand Finale of this Winter.
1. We get ONE more storm above 6 inches and one storm below 4 inches. We'd be above normal snowfall for the winter but within the range I predicted based on the Strong Basin wide, but more western based El Nino.
2. We Get a Phillies game with 2 or more events over 6 inches and a couple of other minor events. This will put us on the EDGE of a top 10 winter in our area snowfall wise.
3. We get Delaware City-- Had a lot of potential but something goes wrong and we are done for the year snowfall wise. My winter outlook falls short, snow loves give me a sympathy pat on the back while you snow haters cackle into what could be a SUPER LA NINA next winter, which are often warm with reduced snow.
Good news for those of you who don't like snow-- I think when the pattern change mid March, The End of the month is actually pretty nice/warm In like a Lion, Out like a Lamb.
I'm going to hedge on a good Ole Slaughters Beach Grand Finale. You'll be impressed, but you'll know there were better events and better years.
Next Weeks Event:
The weekend will be great with 60-65 degrees Saturday and Sunday. Some cooler air filters in Monday and while some COLD air moves in from the west a storm approaches from the SouthWest on Tuesday.
My take is the best potential now makes this the "under 4" inch event as cold air is LATE getting here and we pull something out late, but the bulk of a strong and wet storm is liquid, not frozen. West Virginia into PA does very well away from the coast.
What is needed: It is presenting as a two wave system. Wave one is all rain, wave two is rain ending as snow, some model data has 10 inches Roanoke/NV and 4-6 LYH. If we can get the cold air in faster and slow the storm up, we could make this a bigger event.
On this map below, note how there is a storm over New Foundland, This will bring in cold air and you can see a high pressure centered over MN and that SHOULD be pushing cold air in our region. This is Tuesday Night at 7PM.
This is Wednesday Night at 7PM-- Cold high anchored over Southeast Canada and broad low over SC/GA. The map is actually very warm at the surface, but SHOULD be colder.
Note that 12 hours later, our low is NE of VAB. If we get This time frame, we could see a 4+ snowfall. Anything sooner, I fear the models would SHOW a few inches but we'd end up disappointed.
So, with this being round one of our "Winter Grand Finale" I will watch this event closely. This will be a BIG storm for some areas.. Foot plus. I think we catch a little something, but the severe totals will be 100 miles or more north and west of us. IF that cold air finds it's way in sooner OR if the storm is 12 hours slower, we could be looking at January 22 all over again.
If this falls apart, we should have 2-3 more shots at some snow and ice after this.
Keep up the clicks! You all rock.
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